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HISTORY tells us that at least one and maybe two of the Premier Soccer League’s most recently promoted clubs — TelOne, Arenel, Bikita Minerals and Chegutu Pirates — will be relegated at the end of the season and forced again to ply their trades a division down the Zimbabwean football pyramid.
All four newly promoted clubs rarely stay up in the Premier League for more than a season together. But there is good news for this year’s three freshly promoted clubs, although at least one newly promoted team is usually sent back down. And this is how they have fared in the league so far.
Despite their above-average showing, Pirates already find themselves in some peril. They are hanging out with Hwange, Herentals, Yadah and defending champions, Ngezi Platinum Stars in the relegation zone, having accumulated just seven of a possible 18 points after six matches. It’s still early, but recent precedent suggests that Pirates could be in trouble.
The bad news for Pirates is that they are on pace for approximately 25 points, and no club in the Premier League era has avoided relegation with so few points. The good news is that a slow start isn’t always a death sentence for a newly promoted club — and indeed might actually point to good things to come.
It’s too early to say how any of this will shake out — Pirates will have to figure out its defensive woes if they hope to survive, to be sure, while all will have to start scoring actual goals — but it’s already clear that this season’s crop of newly promoted clubs aren’t there to be stomped on.
Pirates or Bikita quickly being relegated once more would be in line with precedent. Since the formation of the Premier League, clubs from small towns have mostly existed in the lower divisions — gaining the rare promotion to the Premier League and then getting relegated is what they have always done.
But TelOne — whose relegation after just one season barely shocked the football world — could very well become part of the Premier League’s bedrock. After a brief — and nearly disastrous — stint away from it, TelOne have established themselves as a club that belongs at the top of the Zimbabwean football pyramid. But if they hope to remain there this time, the goals will have to start coming sooner rather than later. Fortunately for TelOne fans, the data suggests they will. Even if just barely.
Teams appear to perform better with fewer formation changes. The average surviving team in local football used a set number of systems, while relegated sides are wont to chop and change not just coaches but tactics too.
But it would be hasty to claim consistency is a defining factor: teams are more likely to make changes when results are not going their way. However, teams often benefit from using fewer but well-drilled systems to tackle different styles of opposition.
In terms of line-up changes, relegated sides appear to change formation at a higher ratio than personnel, highlighting a potential lack of squad depth. Meanwhile, clubs avoiding the drop tend to shuffle the starting pack and stick to familiar tactical styles. So, as the Castle Premiership heads into match day seven will all of Arenel, Pirates, TelOne and Bikita continue to impress?
Online Reporter