adminlong-serving President Jose Eduardo dos Santos has chosen a successor and may step down before or one year after a 2012 general election.
The weekly Novo Jornal said a month ago Dos Santos had selected Manuel Vicente, head of national oil company Sonangol, as his successor, although a party spokesman said no decisions had been taken and the party would appoint its candidate at the December meeting.
Meanwhile, two anti-government protests in September showed Angolan youths were ready to air their grievances about poor social conditions and high unemployment but also that the authorities are willing to respond with force.
On the economic front, strong oil prices have allowed Africa’s second biggest crude producer to overcome its debt arrears problems and return to fast growth, but over-dependence on oil and a possible global slowdown could see those problems return.
Dos Santos strengthened his 32-year grip on power with last year’s new constitution, but the MPLA’s decision not to quash talk about a succession signals that for the first time he may be considering a handover of power.
According to the constitution, the number one in the electoral list of the party that wins a general election becomes president.
With the main opposition Unita in disarray thanks to an internal leadership dispute, the MPLA is favourite to win the 2012 election, meaning its list of candidates to be presented in December may signal whether a succession is planned.
If Dos Santos is still selected to lead the party in the election, placing Vicente second in the list could mean the president wants to guarantee an electoral win and hand over power in a controlled manner later.
Analysts say Vicente would not represent a significant change in policies as he is already in the president’s inner power circle, with many saying Dos Santos is likely to remain in the background as a guarantor of stability.
Vice President Fernando da Piedade Dias dos Santos is still also seen as a successor but has health problems and may be outflanked by Vicente or ministers of state Manuel Vieira Dias and Carlos Feijo.
Two anti-government rallies in September showed that a putative youth movement has not been deterred from protests and that the government is ready to clamp down on any dissent.
The first rally in the capital, Luanda, resulted in 24 arrests and injuries to protesters, journalists and police officers during violent clashes.
A court swiftly sentenced 18 of the protesters to up to three months in jail, drawing criticism from opposition parties and international human rights organisations.
A second rally calling for the arrested to be released was blocked by police moments after it started.
Inspired by uprisings in north Africa, the pro-democracy rallies – now totalling four this year – have upset the MPLA, which has responded by organising pro-government demonstrations. Senior party figures have also accused the opposition of planning “a national insurrection”.
The 2012 poll will be only the second after the end of a long civil war that pitted the Russian- and Cuban-backed MPLA against Unita, supported by the United States and apartheid South Africa.
The MPLA, which won the war in 2002 and 82 percent of the vote in a 2008 general election, is likely to win the 2012 election, especially as Unita, now the main opposition party, is embroiled in an internal dispute.
Senior Unita figures in July demanded the resignation of party chief Isaias Samakuva, saying he had prevented the party from choosing its own leader freely. He responded by suspending 12 of the dissenting members for 45 days and promising a party conference by the end of the year.
The internal struggle has not stopped Unita from raising tensions with the MPLA, which it accuses of stripping the national election committee of power and transferring control of logistics to the government. – Reuters.
Online Reporter