Online Reporter
Dr John Basera
AFRICA is one year into implementation of its second 10-year plan — 2024 to 2033 — that is underpinned by the African Union (AU) vision of attaining “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in global arena”.
Anchoring this critical chapter in the continent’s drive towards the grand vision are seven important milestones, fittingly dubbed moonshots, which need to be realised by the end of the decade — 2033 — and to keep the Agenda 2063 journey on the rails of success.
It is thus anticipated that by 2033, the success of this decade of action will entail that every AU member state attains at least middle-income status; Africa is more integrated and connected; public institutions are more responsive; Africa resolves conflicts amicably; African culture and values are explicit and promoted; Africa’s citizens are more empowered and more productive; and Africa is a strong and influential global player.
Without doubt, setting about securing this ambitious yet achievable set of moonshots calls for the AU and its member states to roll up their sleeves, get to work and, of course, leverage Africa’s greatest asset — its people and the abundance of our natural resource endowments.
Put together, Africa has more than any of her peers, the perfect recipe for success and prosperity. The unstoppable future that Africa has set sail on achieving is one that requires a strong commitment to the ideals envisioned by our forebears in uniting Africa into one global force to reckon with.
The vision, now expanded in the Agenda 2063 framework, has transcended generations, from the time of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) right up to its successor, the African Union (AU), as it is known now.
We are, therefore, at an inflection point where Africa has to take its rightful claim and articulate its voice on the global stage by creating a solid base that enables and accelerates inclusive economic growth for the benefit of its people — leaving no African behind.
The second decade of Agenda 2063 is starting when Africa is set to outperform the rest of the world in economic growth, with real gross domestic product (GDP) averaging around 4 percent in 2023 and 2024.
Attaining at least middle-income status by all AU member states in the next decade is one of the prerequisites of accelerated implementation of Agenda 2063 in pursuit of “The Africa We Want” vision. Being true and consistent to the stages of the 50-year journey, from 2013 to 2063, as detailed in the “decades of action and results for Agenda 2063”, is thus fundamental in terms of ensuring convergence in the first 10 years of implementation; accelerating implementation of commitments (2023-2033); getting impact; achieving stability; and growing Africa’s influence.
The role ARBE
At the core of this journey to 2063 is the need for a deliberate transformational thrust focusing on agriculture, rural development, blue economy and environment (ARBE).
The role of this sector cannot be overemphasised as it is a critical pillar, as well as a cross-cutting active ingredient across the seven moonshots, as we journey towards the Africa we want by 2063. The Africa we want is (A) anchored in vibrant agriculture and agribusiness; (R) ready to transform rural economies; (B) building on existing and new frontiers in the blue economy, while (E) engendering and safeguarding the environment for future generations.
This emboldens my belief that the Africa envisioned in the AU Agenda 2063 is one that is anchored by a vibrant agriculture and rural economy, serving as the cornerstone for overall socio-economic transformation.
This is so because in the orthodoxy of development theory, successful industrial revolutions are always preceded by agricultural revolutions catalysing structural transformation.
Yet most AU member states are currently following an unorthodox trend — to a certain extent, through industrialisation without first transforming agriculture and food systems.
Agricultural revolutions have been effected by a total transformation of food systems that brings them into alignment with orthodox pathways. Certainly, industrialisation and political stability are enhanced when food and raw materials are abundant and affordable.
This hastens sustainable industrial development. It is imperative more than ever to accelerate the implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP).
This is our Africa Agenda 2063 accelerator; more specifically, the Kampala Declaration (2026-2035). If Africa is to reduce poverty by 20 percent in 2033, increase per capita income to US$3 048, achieve an annual GDP growth of at least 6 percent, then our answer lies in the religious and accelerated domestication and operationalisation of CAADP and other AU blueprints.
The time is now!
Concerted efforts and resources must be directed towards domestication by member states. In my view, the agriculture and the blue economy sectors are up to four times more powerful at reducing poverty and upscaling rural economies more than other sectors in Africa. A motion to have the CAADP, AU Agenda 2063 and other commitments incorporated into the curricula is not too wild a recommendation as we seek to upscale domestication, ownership and ultimately implementation.
Call to action
Building on the good foundation laid by the first decade (2013-2023) of action, it is now important to trigger a significant agricultural and food system revolution that addresses the major challenges that continue to plague the sector(s); that is, chronically low productivity, climate change and negative global forces.
The ultimate endgame (or the vision) is an agriculture sector and rural economy that guarantees food and nutrition security for all; supplies the growing industrial sector with a diversity of raw materials; supplies skilled labour to the growing industry; is a significant source of income and wealth creation; is a major earner of foreign exchange; and drives capital formation and domestic savings.
A significant challenge that Africa needs to overcome is that all AU member states are trapped in either lower- or middle-income status due to unorthodox structural transformations.
This economic stagnation prevents nations from advancing beyond middle-income level.
The middle-income trap (MIT) is a result of dual economies, where the majority, especially in rural areas, are disconnected from manufacturing and secondary commercial activities. MIT is characterised by stagnant economic growth rates, worsening poverty, unemployment, shrunken domestic market, widening income gaps and, therefore, inevitable social and political conflicts.
Successful examples of overcoming MIT include experiences of the Asian Tigers and Dragons, with China being the most recent.
These countries succeeded because they engendered massive reforms in public policy that altered the architecture of their planning.
This was inextricably linked to manufacturing, employing one-economy, all-inclusive and rural industrialisation strategies.
My vision for the remaining four decades of the AU Agenda 2063 is an agriculture-led return to orthodox structural transformation.
We need to deal with MIT before it comes through accelerating the implementation of deliberate, structured and inclusive interventions such that by 2033, Africa becomes a net exporter of food and value-added goods; by 2043, agricultural growth builds a rural middle class; by 2053, African countries are beyond MIT; and by 2063, Africa’s economy is among the three largest manufacturing economies globally. This is the Africa we want.
An agriculture-led socio-economic transformation simultaneously addresses AU’s broader programmatic priorities.
As MIT recedes, so will sources of conflicts, improving prospects for democracy, peace, law and human rights. Industrialisation achieved through mass production, mass processing and mass consumption of local products means women and youths benefit significantly. Trade and industrial development will massify the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) towards a common market, also fast-tracking a visa-free Africa.
Labour migration becomes less contentious. Prioritising Africa’s traditional foods and lifestyles improves public health and reduced health costs.
Policy and programmatic priorities for transformation
Investing in environmental sustainability and climate resilience
Agriculture and rural development must be intensified to ensure environmental sustainability and climate resilience, riding on research and development innovations to enhance natural capital such as soil health, provision of ecosystem services and environmental stewardship. Irrigation development and a massive Africa-wide adoption of the principles of conservation agriculture (learning from Zimbabwe’s successful Pfumvudza/Intwasa) must be promoted to climate-proof our food systems and communities.
Land governance and agricultural transformation
It is my view that we need to actively start to address Africa’s land governance challenges by strengthening land tenure as a forerunner to unlocking capital and ultimately to transform its agriculture sector.
Blue economy for structural transformation
It is important to leverage fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, transport, ports, coastal mining and energy, as one of the cornerstones for sustainable structural transformation in Africa.
Commercialisation of farming
This is of great importance as it focuses on raising production, productivity and profitability through market integration and value addition, and entails producing more on less land and from less other resources.
Africa must grow yields and food production to avert a food import bill projected to be US$100 billion by 2030.
New fund-raising options
Africa should raise a significant proportion of its funding mix from deliberate internal resources mobilisation.
This is a must! We need a land and development bank leveraging the land endowment to finance Africa’s agriculture and rural development. Agriculture is a game of patience and requires patient capital.
A potential structure could be an African-owned One-Africa Agricultural Land and Development Bank, potentially incubated through the African Development Bank or other institutions. This, in my view, is an Africa Agenda 2063 accelerator.
Furthermore, a significant proportion of patient pension and insurance funds should be channelled towards funding the agriculture and rural development agenda in a structured manner.
Financial structures and instruments to attract diaspora funds towards agriculture and rural development must be pursued and administered through banks.
Dr John Basera is Zimbabwe’s candidate for the position of African Union Commissioner: Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment. He is the current Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Local Government and Public Works and former Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development.
