adminJohannesburg . — South Africa’s trade balance, which now includes trade with Botswana‚ Lesotho‚ Namibia and Swaziland, recorded a wider R12,39 billion deficit in October, from a restated R11,9 billion deficit in September.
South African Revenue Service customs and excise data showed on Friday that the trade balance recorded a R20,97 billion deficit excluding trade with Botswana‚ Lesotho‚ Namibia and Swaziland is excluded, widening from R18,9 billion in September.
The deficit was much as expected, but economists said it was still wide.
A poll of economists surveyed by BDlive had forecast a R12,5 billion deficit. The forecasts ranged from a deficit of R8 billion to a deficit of R16 billion.
Vunanai Securities economist Ilke van Zyl said seasonal worsening was countered by “upbeat import figures from Japan and China” during October.
“It is still, however, a wide deficit and we will be keenly watching the current account data come Tuesday to assess the country’s escalating external vulnerabilities,” Ms van Zyl said.
The R12,39 billion deficit for October was attributed to exports of R81,7 billion and imports of R94,09 billion
The cumulative deficit for 2013 is R76,1 billion, compared with R38,62 billion during the same period in 2012.
Excluding trade with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, the cumulative deficit for 2013 is R146,58 billion, compared with R106,16 billion in 2012.
ETM Analytics economist Jana le Roux noted that the cumulative deficit was almost twice the 2012 figure.
“Despite the inclusion of Botswana‚ Lesotho‚ Namibia and Swaziland in the data, the structural factors that have been driving a large external imbalance remain a feature,” she said.
Nedbank economist Isaac Matshego said the data “(confirm) the trend that we’ve seen since early 2012 of export under-performance and imports remaining high”.
Exports increased from September to October by R5,83 billion or 7,7 percent‚ and imports rose by R6,32 billion or 7,2 percent.
Exports that increased included vehicles, aircraft and vessels exports, up 74 percent or R2,98 billion, precious and semiprecious stones and metals, up 7 percent or R973 million and machinery and electrical appliances, up 10 percent or R720 million. Exports of mineral products fell 4 percent or R829 million and exports of vegetable products dropped by 28 percent or R1,05 billion.
Vehicles, aircraft and vessels imports increased by 28 percent or R1,92 billion imports of products of the chemicals or allied industries rose R1,71 billion or 22 percent; and imports of machinery and electrical appliances increased by R1,24 billion or 6 percent.
The imports of base metals and base-metal articles increased by R1,05 billion or 27 percent, while those of mineral products fell by R1,09 billion 5 percent — Businessday.
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