Online Reporter
Kasirim Nwuke
ON February 28, the 10th day of the 2026 Ramadan season, in the early hours of the morning, the United States of America and its ally, the State of Israel, launched a co-ordinated attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This occurred a day after the Omani Foreign Minister, in a US television interview, stated that negotiations — mediated by Oman — between the US and Iran on the latter’s nuclear programme were progressing well and that peace was within reach. The attack sent shock waves across the world.
This was not a surprise assault. Iran has spent the past 47 years, since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979, preparing for confrontation with what it has long called “The Great Satan”, referring to the US. On February 28, unlike during the 12 day war, Iran retaliated immediately. Another conflict in the Middle East had begun.
Iran struck not only targets in Israel but also US bases in many of the US aligned countries surrounding it. By the end of the day, the US and Israel claimed to have decapitated the leadership of the Islamic Republic, announcing that the Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed.
Iran, seemingly mindful of the Islamic practice of burying the deceased within 48 hours, was compelled to acknowledge and confirm the death of its Supreme Leader.
In the immediate aftermath, Iran declared the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all ships except Russian and Chinese vessels. The Strait is vital to the global economy. It is estimated that between 20 and 30 percent of global oil and gas exports pass through it. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20 million barrels of oil transited the Strait daily in 2024.
About an hour after the co-ordinated US Israeli strikes commenced, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard broadcast messages via VHF channels to merchant ships in the Persian Gulf, stating that transit through the Strait was prohibited.
Iran is able to threaten closure of the Strait because it is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Oman, which controls the southern portion of the Strait, is. By March 1, reports indicated that more than 70 percent of shipping had been suspended or diverted from the route. Oil prices quickly rose after Iran’s announcement.
This was not due to the laying of mines or a physical blockade, but rather to risk assessments by shippers and insurers. Many deemed the danger unacceptable. Insurance premiums may rise sharply, and some ships may lose coverage altogether.
As a result, vessels are re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, particularly after Iran’s allies, the Yemeni Houthis, announced plans to close the Bab el Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea to US and Israeli ships. The consequences for global trade, oil prices and inflation could be severe.
Harm to world trade
Closing the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran’s only means of disrupting global commerce. Reports indicate that Iran shelled wealthy suburbs of Dubai and key infrastructure. Given its focus on targeting US interests and the dominance of US oil and gas companies in the Gulf, Iran could escalate by striking related assets.
The aim appears to be to raise the economic and political cost for the US and its regional partners, potentially pressuring them to rein in Trump and Netanyahu. Iran may justify this by pointing to claims that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman encouraged Trump to strike, and the presence of substantial Trump owned assets in Dubai and the UAE. Such escalation would significantly endanger the global oil and gas trade.
Iran’s capacity to expand the conflict is considerable. All major Gulf oil and gas facilities are within range of its ballistic missiles, and many are situated in predominantly Shia regions where local populations share religious ties with Iran and may feel marginalised by Sunni led Governments.
If unrest spreads among Shia populations in the Gulf and Iran co-ordinates sabotage or direct attacks on oil infrastructure, the global economic fallout could far exceed the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz.
If Trump, worried about electoral damage from rising fuel prices, restricts US energy exports, Europe could face severe shortages due to its sanctions on Russian energy. Asia would also be affected, and African economies would import the resulting inflation through their trade links.
Who is next after Iran?
With development aid and assistance dwindling and debt crises looming, Africa’s oil importing nations, already fiscally constrained, could face dire challenges.
Beyond economics, African countries would be unwise to assume their sovereignty is immune from the Trump Netanyahu axis. Once Iran is subdued, the next target may follow swiftly.
The pattern is visible: Lebanon and Palestine, then Syria, Venezuela, Greenland and now Iran.
US Israeli foreign policy under the Trump Netanyahu “Dvoika” mirrors past imperial strategies — layers peeled back reveal the same themes: domination, expansion and subjugation.
Trump has already signalled that other nations may face the “Maduro treatment” — regime decapitation.
Israel has indicated, in a January 2026 Times of Israel blog overlooked by African media, that it would like to see
Africa further fragmented, starting with South Africa.
With a US base in Botswana, South Africa may struggle to resist combined US Israeli pressure. Its internal divisions remain pronounced, particularly along racial lines, while secessionist factions provide potential pretexts for intervention. Its long coastline, once an asset, could become a vulnerability. South Africa may yet regret dismantling its nuclear deterrent.
Nigeria, weakened by chronic corruption and internal contradictions, appears unwilling or unable to defend its sovereignty. Somalia and Somaliland could be targeted next; neither Turkey nor Egypt is likely to intervene if US Israeli forces manoeuvre off Mogadishu to pressure recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Africa’s necessary response
Africa must act decisively. The continent must mobilise public opinion, strengthen alliances with Russia and China, and seek inclusion under their nuclear umbrellas if possible. Above all, African nations must consolidate — 54 fragmented, colonially created states are too many to withstand global power politics.
While the long term goal should be political mergers and larger federated states, immediate steps could include developing a continental military structure, investing in science, technology and defence industries, and fostering unity across the continent.
Africa must awaken collective consciousness — from Cape to Cairo, from Ras Hafun to Cape Verde — because its future depends on it.
The time to act was yesterday. Today is not yet too late.
As the Ndi Igbo of Nigeria say, Igwe bu ike — unity is strength. Just as lions hunt in prides, Africa must now act as one.
*Kasirim Nwuke is Chief of the Green Economy, Technologies and Innovation Section at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). — New African Magazine
