South African GNU — A microwave cooked coalition

IN a surprising turn of events, the recent South African elections have led to the African National Congress (ANC) losing its majority power for the first time in history. With only 40 percent of Parliamentarians, the ANC was faced with the difficult decision of forming a coalition government or facing a period of political instability.

The ANC, under the leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa, opted to fast track agreements that conformed to his present. This move raised questions about whether this was a pre-determined and filed template being followed. Prominent figures such as the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) Tony Leon, Helen Zille, Rob Hersov, and the late FW De Klerk had predicted that South Africa would soon have a coalition government led by the ANC with a vote less than the majority. Zille, in particular, consistently provided lectures about this likely outcome with unwavering confidence even on podcasts.

The DA also played a significant role in shaping the formation of the coalition government. They identified the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) as the true enemy and suggested maintaining their 20 percent vote share while creating several parties to focus on fighting the EFF. This strategy aimed to reduce the EFF’s influence and maintain a balance of power in the coalition.

In an unexpected turn of events, Jacob Zuma’s party, Umkhonto Wesizwe (MK), was launched, but it did not derail the DA’s plan. The final results of the elections indicated that the ANC had lost its majority, but Ramaphosa achieved the highest number of votes in Parliament, securing his position as President.

For the first time, the DA supported an ANC President, marking a significant shift in political dynamics. Following the election results, negotiations between the parties were fast-tracked, almost aligning with Zille’s promise of maintaining 20 percent of the votes and forcing the ANC under Ramaphosa into a coalition government. The DA’s demands were tough, often considered illegal, legally incompetent, and opportunistic, but surprisingly, 50 percent of them were fulfilled.

As the coalition government finalised its cabinet, it became evident that the DA was the major beneficiary, followed by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Good Party, Freedom Front Plus (FF+), Pan Africanist Congress (PAC), Al Jamaa, and others. However, notable exceptions were the Rise Mzansi and Bosa parties, validating the suspicion that these parties were formed solely to steal votes and reduce the EFF’s influence — a strategy that seems to have worked.

While coalitions typically take an average of 180 days to form, the South African coalition, or Government of National Unity (GNU), broke this record by being arguably the first of a multiparty character and being arranged within just two weeks. This premature arrangement raises concerns about its stability and potential fatal consequences.

It is important not to undermine the progressive forces that comprise the EFF, MK party, and African Transformation Movement (ATM). They are the biggest losers in this coalition formation and have been largely sidelined to accommodate the DA-aligned coalition that is now in place. South Africa’s GNU is an unorthodox political experiment that, while promising at first glance, carries the potential for unexpected fallout.

The speedy formation of the coalition raises questions about the long-term viability and effectiveness of this microwave cooked arrangement. Only time will tell if this newborn coalition can weather the storm and bring stability to the South African political landscape.
l Marshall Rufura Ndlela is a renowned academic and economist. He can be contacted at [email protected]