Online Reporter
There is little doubt that a harsher treatment of Chinese products under the first Trump administration, much of which was continued by the Biden White House, reduced China’s share of US imports.
New research suggests President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on imports from China could hit the American economy more than official US trade data indicate.
The impact, according to a study from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will be especially severe if the Trump administration ends favourable treatment of so-called “de minimis” imports — or those valued at less than US$800.
“US imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official US statistics,” Hunter L. Clark, a New York Fed researcher, wrote in a blog post published on Wednesday.
“As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the US economy than is suggested by official US data on the China import share.”
There is little doubt that a harsher treatment of Chinese products under the first Trump administration, much of which was continued by the Biden White House, reduced China’s share of US imports.
But by how much? The answer varies depending on which country you choose to believe.
US data show that imports from China declined to 13,4 percent of total imports in 2024 from 21,6 percent in 2018. In nominal terms, they fell by US$66 billion to US$439 billion in that time frame.
But China’s data tell a different story. They show “exports as a share of the US import market have only declined by 2,5 percentage points, less than one-third of the decline shown in the US data,” according to the blog post. China’s data also says the nominal value of exports increased by US$91,2 billion, to US$524 billion.
“Simply stated, the US is saying it buys from China a lot less than what China says it is selling,” Clark wrote. – Bloomberg
