Online Reporter
Professor Desmond Manatsa
THERE is a crucial difference between waiting for a weather forecast and waiting to prepare for what may lie ahead. In Zimbabwe, those two things are often treated as one and the same, yet they are not.
As the country awaits the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) rainfall forecast, farmers are already asking familiar questions: What should we plant? When should we plant? Will food prices rise?
These are important questions, but they should not mark the beginning of preparations. By the time the forecast is released, readiness measures should already be underway.
The atmosphere does not pause while people deliberate. Climate systems continue to evolve regardless of planning meetings, consultations or policy discussions.
Current global climate guidance indicates that El Niño conditions are present in the Pacific Ocean and could intensify further. At the same time, there are indications that the Indian Ocean Dipole may enter a positive phase. Both of these climate drivers influence rainfall patterns across southern Africa and have the potential to affect Zimbabwe’s agricultural season.
This does not mean drought is guaranteed.
Climate science cannot determine exactly how much rain will fall on an individual farm in Gokwe or a specific village in Shurugwi. However, historical research shows that Zimbabwe is among the southern African countries that tend to experience drier-than-normal conditions when El Niño develops.
That reality should encourage preparation, not fear.
SARCOF will provide guidance on expected rainfall patterns. Scientific research can already provide guidance on what practical preparations should be undertaken. Only one of those requires waiting.
A loaded dice, not a final verdict
The term “super El Niño” has become increasingly common in climate discussions and forecasts suggest the current event could reach that threshold.
However, a strong El Niño does not automatically translate into severe drought.
A more useful way to understand El Niño is to think of it as adding weight to one side of a dice. It increases the chances of certain outcomes occurring, but it does not determine the final result.
Many other factors influence seasonal rainfall, including regional wind systems, moisture flow from surrounding oceans, local temperatures and weather disturbances moving across the region.
Zimbabwe’s own climate history provides important lessons.
The 1997/98 El Niño was among the strongest ever recorded globally and raised widespread fears of drought. Yet the Meteorological Services Department later described that season as normal to near-normal in many parts of the country.
Conversely, the devastating 2021/22 drought occurred without an El Niño event.
Short-term weather events can also dramatically alter seasonal outcomes. In March 2019, while an El Niño-influenced season was experiencing drying conditions, Cyclone Idai brought heavy rainfall to several districts, interrupting drought conditions even as it caused devastating destruction and loss of life in Chimanimani and Chipinge.
These examples demonstrate that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the severity of a drought.
Often, the greatest damage occurs where communities, farming systems and water infrastructure are already vulnerable before dry conditions develop.
Whether a difficult season becomes a humanitarian crisis frequently depends on factors that are within human control: functioning boreholes, access to appropriate seed varieties, livestock water supplies, functioning markets and timely social support systems.
Southern Africa does not receive the same rainfall
Research examining drought patterns across southern Africa between 1950 and 2026 shows that the region does not respond uniformly to El Niño events.
While many southern areas tend to experience drier conditions, regions farther north can experience different outcomes and may even receive above-normal rainfall.
As a result, broad regional averages can sometimes mask local risks.
Zimbabwe falls within the group of countries that are generally more susceptible to dry conditions during El Niño years, alongside Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini and parts of Mozambique.
For that reason, reports of favourable rainfall in northern SADC countries should not create a false sense of security.
SADC is a political and economic community. It is not a single climate zone.
Similarly, Zimbabwe itself cannot be treated as one large farm.
The rainfall patterns, agricultural conditions and water availability in Matabeleland differ significantly from those in Mashonaland, the Eastern Highlands, the Lowveld or the central watershed.
Whatever SARCOF forecasts will ultimately need to be interpreted at local level before farmers can make informed decisions.
The greatest danger may come after planting
One of the most important findings from climate research is that El Niño’s impact on Zimbabwe is often felt most strongly later in the growing season.
The influence is frequently less pronounced when planting rains first arrive. Instead, it tends to intensify during January, February and March, precisely when maize crops require adequate moisture for flowering and grain development.
This means early rains should not automatically be interpreted as a sign that the season is secure.
A crop can germinate successfully, establish good growth and appear healthy, only to fail later when moisture becomes insufficient during critical growth stages.
By that time, households have already invested money in seed, fertiliser and labour.
For this reason, monitoring conditions after planting is just as important as monitoring conditions before planting.
Temperature also plays a critical role.
Higher temperatures increase evaporation from soils, reservoirs and crops. As a result, two seasons receiving similar amounts of rainfall can produce very different outcomes depending on when the rain falls and how hot conditions become.
A season with average rainfall can still produce poor harvests if rains are poorly distributed or prolonged heat occurs.
What should happen now?
The available evidence does not justify declaring a drought before the rainfall forecast is issued.
It does, however, justify preparing for different possibilities.
Many preparedness measures are relatively inexpensive and beneficial regardless of whether the season turns out wet, dry or normal.
Seed availability should be prioritised so that farmers can access short-, medium- and long-season varieties as conditions dictate. Extension officers should also have location-specific advice ready for immediate distribution when forecasts are released.
Water infrastructure requires urgent attention.
Broken boreholes, leaking systems, faulty pumps and poorly maintained water points should be repaired before the peak of the farming season. The cost of preventative maintenance is often far lower than emergency intervention during a crisis.
Livestock management must also be addressed early.
Farmers need access to grazing assessments, water resources and fodder planning. Early market interventions can help households avoid panic sales that drastically reduce the value of livestock assets.
Energy and irrigation managers should prepare for multiple scenarios.
Water levels influence electricity generation while high temperatures can increase demand for irrigation and power at the same time. Preparedness now can reduce disruptions later.
Food security planning should also begin immediately.
Authorities must verify grain reserves, assess storage conditions and determine procurement and transport requirements well before supplies become necessary. Social protection mechanisms should be prepared in advance so assistance can be activated quickly if required.
At household level, preparedness is equally important.
Families can repair leaking taps, improve water storage, protect food stocks and identify vulnerable household members who may require additional support during difficult periods.
This is not about panic buying or stockpiling. It is about sensible planning. The choice Zimbabwe faces
When the SARCOF forecast is eventually released, it should serve as a guide for decision-making rather than simply becoming another headline.
If below-normal rainfall is forecast, preparedness activities should intensify and become more targeted.
If normal rainfall is forecast, vigilance should remain because climate risks do not disappear overnight.
If uncertainty remains, flexibility becomes even more important. Uncertainty should never be mistaken for safety. Preparedness is not a prediction of failure. It is an investment in resilience, dignity and recovery.
Zimbabwe can afford to wait for the forecast. What it cannot afford is waiting to be ready.
l Professor Desmond Manatsa is a climate scientist affiliated with the School of Geosciences at Bindura University of Science Education and the University of the Free State. He is President of the African Alliance of Disaster Risk Institutions (AADRI). The underlying study was co-authored with Professor Terence Mushore of the University of Zimbabwe and James Ngoma of the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department. The views expressed in this article do not replace official guidance from the SADC Climate Services Centre or Zimbabwe’s Meteorological Services Department.
