Toyota braces for US$9,5 billion hit

Toyota Motor Corp lowered its annual guidance as it warned of a ¥1,4 trillion (US$9,5 billion) hit to its bottom line from US tariffs that have rattled the global automotive industry.

The world’s biggest carmaker now sees ¥3,2 trillion in operating income for the fiscal year ending in March 2026, it said Thursday. That’s down from its initial forecast of ¥3,8 trillion, and also missed analyst expectations.

The carmaker reported operating income of ¥1,17 trillion in the first quarter, down 11 percent from a year earlier, beating analysts’ predictions for ¥890 billion. While price hikes in some regions helped that metric, the tariff impact was ¥450 billion for the period.

The outlook, which coincides with the start of President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, marks the carmaker’s most comprehensive account of its likely impact beyond a previous estimate that it faced a ¥180 billion hit in April and May alone.

Toyota’s estimate dwarfs recent forecasts from global heavyweights as the auto industry contends with fast-changing policies that are seeing costs balloon. Ford Motor Co said last week that it sees a net tariff impact of US$2 billion, about US$500 million more than the company expected previously.

Meanwhile, Stellantis NV sees tariffs setting back earnings by about €1,5 billion, and General Motors Co said its exposure is US$4 billion to $5 billion. Still, Toyota has a tendency to take a conservative approach to forecasts and “recent trends suggest potential upside, with Japan, North America, and China leading the charge,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida. “Toyota appears to be working on initiatives to mitigate the tariff burden — such as revising its supply chain for US-bound vehicles.”

Its forecast is also more pessimistic than Japanese peers. Subaru Corp. pegs the tariff impact at ¥210 billion, Nissan Motor Co. forecasts ¥300 billion and Honda Motor Co. anticipates ¥450 billion. – Bloomberg

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