daniel chigunweTapiwanashe Mangwiro
The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States brought with it a wave of uncertainty for the global economy. His “America First” policies, reflected in his inauguration speech and early executive orders, have raised questions about their ripple effects on trade, commodities and financial markets.
For Zimbabwe and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), these policies could have significant implications.
Global trade tensions and SADC exports
Trump’s protectionist stance has been a cornerstone of his administration. His focus on renegotiating trade deals, imposing tariffs and prioritising U.S. industries could disrupt global trade patterns.
Dr Francis Moyo, an economist and former African Development Bank executive, through his LinkedIn explained: “If Trump’s administration introduces higher tariffs on imports, this could trigger retaliatory measures from other countries. For SADC, this could mean reduced access to the U.S. market, particularly under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). AGOA has been critical for some SADC countries exporting textiles, minerals and agricultural products.”
Dr Moyo warned that if AGOA is renegotiated or scrapped, SADC products like tobacco and horticultural exports could lose their competitive edge in the U.S.
“The U.S. market is not our largest, but losing preferential access would push us to look for alternative markets, which could take years to establish,” he said.
Commodity prices and mining sector
Zimbabwe’s economy relies heavily on mining, particularly gold, platinum and diamonds. Trump’s energy policies, which favour fossil fuels and U.S. energy independence, could indirectly affect global commodity prices.
Mining engineer, Tinashe Chikwenya noted: “Trump’s push to expand oil drilling and coal mining in the US could lower global energy prices, which would impact mining costs. While this might seem like good news for mining operations here, it also means reduced demand for commodities like platinum, which is used in catalytic converters for vehicles. If global car sales drop due to trade tensions, platinum prices could take a hit.”
Chikwenya also highlighted the potential for increased competition in the gold market.
“If the U.S. increases its domestic production of gold, it could lead to oversupply, pushing prices down. For Zimbabwe, where gold is a major foreign currency earner, this would be a blow to our struggling economy,” he added.
Financial markets and currency volatility
Trump’s deregulation of the U.S. financial sector could create ripple effects globally. Through repealing parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, his administration aims to boost lending and investment in the U.S, but this might come at a cost for emerging markets.
Economist, Dr Charity Feremba explains: “A deregulated U.S. financial sector would attract global capital, strengthening the U.S. dollar.
“While this is good for American investors, it could make the dollar more expensive for countries like Zimbabwe, which rely on U.S. dollars for trade and reserves. A stronger dollar means our imports become more expensive, and our external debt burden increases.”
Dr Feremba added that currency volatility could also deter foreign direct investment in Zimbabwe.
“Investors want stability, and Trump’s unpredictable policies could lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, making it harder for emerging markets like ours to attract capital,” she said.
Trade expert’s perspective on SADC
Trade expert, Blessing Dube, believes the SADC region needs to prepare for potential shifts in U.S. trade policy.
“The U.S. under Trump might prioritise bilateral trade agreements over multilateral ones. This could leave smaller economies at a disadvantage when negotiating terms,” she said.
Dube also emphasised the importance of regional trade. “If access to the U.S. market becomes more restrictive, SADC countries need to strengthen intra-regional trade. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to reduce our reliance on Western markets.”
What can Zimbabwe do?
Experts agree that Zimbabwe and SADC need to be proactive in mitigating the potential fallout from Trump’s policies.
Dr Moyo advised: “Zimbabwe should diversify its export markets and reduce over-reliance on commodities. Investing in value-added industries, such as processing our minerals locally, would help us weather global market fluctuations.”
Dube added: “The government must also focus on creating a conducive environment for investment. Clear policies, improved infrastructure and regional integration are key to attracting investors, even in uncertain global conditions.”
Mining engineer, Chikwenya highlighted the importance of innovation in the mining sector.
He said: “We need to explore cost-effective technologies to remain competitive. With global prices likely to fluctuate, reducing production costs will be critical for survival.”
Trump’s policies: What they mean for ZIDERA and Zimbabwe
As Trump’s presidency focuses on domestic priorities and major global powers, Zimbabwe’s issues may not be on his immediate agenda.
However, existing U.S. legislation like the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZIDERA) and the Global Magnitsky Act, remain significant for the country’s economic and political future.
Political analyst, Takudzwa Chitongo, believes Trump is unlikely to prioritise ZIDERA. “His ‘America First’ approach focuses on larger strategic interests. Zimbabwe does not currently fit into that framework unless it offers something valuable, like critical minerals.”
ZIDERA, which imposes sanctions on Zimbabwean officials and institutions, is likely to remain unless Zimbabwe bends into their demands.
The Global Magnitsky Act, which targets individuals involved in alleged corruption or human rights abuses, could also see further application in Zimbabwe as the administration seeks to cripple the economy even further.
He added that Zimbabwe’s rich deposits of minerals like lithium and platinum could attract U.S. interest, but only if the country establishes itself as a reliable trade partner.
“Zimbabwe must focus on internal reforms to rebuild trust with the international community,” Chitongo concluded.
While Trump’s policies might not actively target Zimbabwe, sanctions will remain a barrier unless significant progress is made.
Trump’s policies may seem distant, but their effects could ripple across the globe, touching economies like Zimbabwe’s in unexpected ways. From potential trade disruptions to fluctuating commodity prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, the challenges are real.
However, as Dr Feremba aptly puts it: “While we cannot control U.S. policies, we can control how we respond. Zimbabwe must focus on resilience, innovation and regional cooperation to navigate these uncertain times.”
For Zimbabweans, the message is clear, the world is changing, and we must adapt to secure our economic future.
Bongani Ndlovu