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Rebecca Manzou
THE Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) is a culmination of the collaborative scientific computation of the seasonal rainfall for the SADC region by climate scientists from within the region.
As is known, weather knows no boundary. During SARCOF, stakeholders from key climate-sensitive sectors had an in-depth analysis of the 2024/2025 rainfall outlook, sharing their views and possible impacts of the forecast on their sectors.
This year’s forum offered opportunities for knowledge exchange and improved understanding of climate-related issues, while also showcasing Zimbabwe’s hospitality.
It also resulted in a better understanding of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which have been topical in past seasons.
By hosting such a significant event, Zimbabwe enhanced its visibility on the regional and international stages as an active player in climate discussions.
This also included marketing the country as a tourist destination.
Benefits
By hosting SARCOF, Zimbabwe elevated its status as an active player in regional climate discussions, showcasing its commitment to the Early Warning for All Initiative.
A significant number of local meteorologists and climate scientists benefited from training and capacity-building initiatives, improving their forecasting capabilities.
The hosting of SARCOF enabled more participation from local stakeholders, which would not have happened had it been elsewhere.
Key findings
The 2024/2025 seasonal forecast for the SADC region indicates an increased probability of normal to above-normal conditions for the October to March period for the central part of the region (Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and central Mozambique), as well as the small island state of Mauritius.
Increased probability of normal to below-normal conditions during the October to December period is forecasted for south-western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and north-east South Africa.
The areas with increased probability of below-normal rainfall are expected to expand to cover the northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and northern Tanzania by the December to February period.
Zimbabwe’s forecast
For Zimbabwe, the exact commencement dates (of the rainfall season) varies from place to place and from season to season, and is mainly influenced by the smaller-scale weather systems, different from the regional to global systems that are used when a seasonal forecast is generated.
This is also coupled with differences in agro-ecological zones, together with land forms such as hills and valleys, and necessitates the need for different stakeholders to get regular updates from the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) as the season evolves.
For planning purposes, however, the mean start of the season in most parts of the country is mid-November until early December, though the southern parts can have an earlier onset, as early as October.
The 2024/2025 seasonal rainfall outlook indicates an increased chance of normal to below-normal rainfall during the October-November-December sub-season across the country.
Possibility of extreme weather events
A heat wave is a combination of factors that include humidity and high temperatures.
In Zimbabwe, increased humidity is usually coupled with rains and inherently cloudy conditions, which block out the excess heat.
However, the first part of the season is usually characterised by generally high temperatures and less humidity before the onset of the rains.
These high temperatures are erroneously termed heatwaves but, in essence, are very hot conditions.
Cyclones
Tropical cyclones are a very significant phenomenon and have their own specialised forecast. The MSD will be a part of the deliberations and keep the nation informed on any development within the weather and climate sphere.
Rebecca Manzou is the acting director of the Meteorological Services Department. She was responding to questions from The Sunday Mail’s Emmanuel Kafe.
Online Reporter