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either from Liberia or a host of other teams, for them to qualify for the showcase in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea next year.
Not since defeating Rwanda 2-0, in Kigali on July 3, 2004, have the Warriors won a Nations Cup tie on foreign soil but Norman Mapeza’s bubbly Class of 2011 will have to change all that for the 2012 Nations Cup campaign to end with a success story.
The Warriors have been stalked by a dreadful away record in the Nations Cup and their win over Rwanda was followed by seven defeats, and three draws – against Algeria, Guinea and Liberia – on the road, in the tournament.
But a victory in Cape Verde might give the Warriors the automatic qualifying ticket from Group A, in the event Mali fail to win in Liberia, in a tough group where the Atlantic Ocean islanders, who are sitting in third place, can also qualify.
A draw in Cape Verde will not be enough to give the Warriors first place, and the guaranteed ticket, even if the Eagles lose in Liberia because, while both Zimbabwe and Mali will end with nine points, in that scenario, the West Africans will top the group because of the away goal they scored at Rufaro.
It’s a campaign that has a familiar ringing tone to the way the Warriors qualified for Tunisia 2004, in a group that was ironically won by Mali, after the two countries finished with 13 points each only for Zimbabwe to progress by virtue of being one of the best second-placed teams.
The Warriors are currently sitting in seventh place, on the table that ranks teams finishing second and battling for the two slots available, but such is the complicated nature of the qualifying rules and regulations being used by Caf, it could all change dramatically on the final weekend.
Mauritania’s withdrawal from the 2012 Nations Cup qualifiers left Group F with only three teams and, to give the team that finishes second in that pool a fair chance to fight for the two runners-up slots, Caf devised a complicated system to classify teams finishing second.
All the results attained by the team that finished fourth – in the four-team groups – will not be considered in the final classification for second place for the two runners-up slots.
For example, if Zimbabwe finish second, their results against Liberia will not be considered in the ranking for the runners-up slots, with only the Warriors’ results against Cape Verde and Mali being considered.
“In case a group of four is reduced to three teams during the competition, the two best runners-up of the groups of four will be determined by taking into account their results with the first (team) and third (team) of their respective groups without taking into account their results against the last team of their groups,” read the 2012 Nations Cup qualifying regulations.
“(This is) in order to allow the second of the group, reduced to three teams, to remain in the race for the two best second (teams) The two best runners-up will be determined by the following parameters in this order:
l Highest number of points
l Goal difference
l Highest number of goals scored
l Match replay in case of parity.”
If Zimbabwe beat Cape Verde next month, and still finish second, their total points in the race for the two play-off slots will be seven (a win and a loss against Mali and a win and draw against Cape Verde).
And, although Sudan and Libya already have seven points, they could lose points if the identity of the bottom club in their group changes.
The Libyans complete their programme with an away date against Zambia while Sudan have a home tie against Ghana in their final fixture.
Zimbabwe, Sudan, Libya, Angola (six points), Central African Republic (five), Nigeria (four) and South Africa (four), all have the potential to finish first in their group, which also changes the dynamics of the classification battles for the two runners-up slots.
Gambia (three), Burundi (two) and Cameroon (two) have no chance of winning their groups and can only hope for a place among the two best runners-up.
Zimbabwe, Angola, Central African Republic, South Africa, Burundi and Cameroon can also eventually finish third in their groups.
Sudan, Libya, CAR, Nigeria and Burundi are the teams in groups where the identity of the fourth-placed team can also change.
Gambia are away to Burkina Faso, Burundi away to Cote d’Ivoire, Angola away to Guinea Bissau, CAR away to Algeria, Cameroon away to the DRC while Nigeria are home to Guinea and South Africa host Sierra Leone.
In the event Zimbabwe draw against Cape Verde and Mali fall in Liberia, the two nations will end with an identical tally of nine points, but the Eagles will still win Group A because of the away goal they scored in Harare. Caf’s 2012 Nations Cup qualifying regulations stipulate that:
“The order of tie-breakers used when two or more teams have equal number of points is:
l Number of points obtained in games between the teams concerned;
l Goal difference in games between the teams concerned;
l Goals scored in games between the teams concerned;
l Away goals scored in games between the teams concerned;
l Goal difference in all games;
l Goals scored in all games;
l Drawing of lots.”
The Warriors and the Eagles, in head-to-head clashes, have three points each after both teams won their home games, the goal difference is (zero), with both countries scoring two goals and conceding two, and the goals scored in games between the two teams won’t separate them.
But, in Point Four of the regulations, Mali have an ally because they scored an away goal at Rufaro, in a 1-2 defeat, while the Warriors were beaten 0-1 in Bamako.
While Liberia can get to seven points, with a win against Mali and tie the tally that Cape Verde will have in the event they lose to Zimbabwe, the Lone Star cannot finish ahead of the Atlantic Ocean islanders because of the head-to-head record between the two teams.
While they will both have three points, Cape Verde beat Liberia 4-2 at home and lost 0-1 in Monrovia, which gives them a better goal difference.
The Warriors, however, will feel the pain of the two points they dropped at home when they were held to a goalless draw by Cape Verde amid turmoil in their camp.
Of the 44 teams taking part in the 2012 Nations Cup qualifiers, the Warriors are just one of 10 teams, including South Africa, Zambia, Cameroon and Nigeria, who have only lost once while eight other nations are still unbeaten at this stage.
The Warriors have been the most difficult team to beat in Group A, so far, with the least number of losses (one) but their failure to convert advantages, against Liberia (away) and Cape Verde (home), have derailed their campaign.
While Zimbabwe played in patches, in their 3-0 win over Liberia, it was a mark of this team’s pedigree that they still coasted to a comfortable win, even under pressure, when they knew anything short of a win would be disastrous.
It’s a measure of how they have developed over the past year, under Mapeza, and with Knowledge Musona and Nyasha Mushekwi expected to return for the final landing in Cape Verde, there is still hope in this campaign.
Current Standings For Two 2012 Nations Cup
Runners-Up Slots
P W D L FAPtsNotes
Sudan 321 0 3 0 7 1.4
Libya3 2 10 2 0 71.4
Angola 4 20 2 4 5 61.3
CAR4 121 33 5 1.3.4
Nigeria 3 1 11 6 3 4 1.4
South Africa 3 1 1 13 2 41.3
ZIMBABWE 3 11 1 2 2 41.3
Gambia 3 10 245 3
Burundi3 02 1 23 23.4
Cameroon 3 0 2 112 2 3
Notes
1 – Team may potentially finish first in the group
3 – Team may potentially finish third in the group
4 – Fourth placed team may change, ranking points might
change, too.
Online Reporter