Online Reporter
Gibson Nyikadzino
Zimpapers Politics Hub
TOMORROW, voters in the Glen View South constituency are going to the ballot to elect their National Assembly representative in a second by-election in nearly six years since the constituency’s creation in 2008.
The first by-election, held on September 7, 2019, was necessitated by the death, on 10 June 2019, of Vimbai Tsvangirai-Java of the MDC Alliance. This time, the seat was left vacant following the death of legislator Mr Grandmore Hakata, who was from the opposition CCC.
Voting patterns and the behaviour of the electorate in this constituency since 2008 have been unfavourable to ZANU PF candidates.
However, by observing voting trends on the previous by-election and an electoral overview since 2008, ZANU PF stands a big chance of winning.
From 2008, the opposition has metamorphosised; hence in the 2008, 2013, 2018 and 2023 elections, ZANU PF faced the opposition as MDC-T; MDC-Alliance and CCC.
Each time the opposition has rebranded, its support base has been declining, giving room to ZANU PF.
Since 2008, a closer analysis of the election results for this constituency shows that votes for the MDC declined between 2008 and 2013 before increasing in 2018.
Although ZANU-PF’s votes increased between 2008 and 2018, the opposition (as MDC-T or MDC-Alliance) continued to post victories with wide margins.
These big margins can be attributed to protest votes from urbanites who may have been swayed by the empty rhetoric of Mr Morgan Tsvangirai and the now retired Nelson Chamisa in the pre-and post-2018 era.
It appears rationality has somehow returned to the constituency to enable the electorate to vote based on issues.
Of importance is to note that ZANU PF’s electoral performance in Glen View South has been informed by its ability to organise and keep a presence in a constituency that traditionally has been an opposition stronghold.
Since 2008, the constituency has been an opposition stronghold with Paul Madzore winning it twice in a row with wide margins of 9 158 votes in 2008 and 8 301 votes in 2013 against ZANU PF candidate’s 2 583 votes in 2013, for example. In the 2018 harmonised elections, MDC-Alliance candidate Tsvangirai-Java won the constituency with 9 942 votes against ZANU PF’s Dumisani Chipango who garnered 3 248 votes.
However, following Tsvangirai-Java’s death, her brother Vincent Tsvangirai won the poll with 3 474 votes against Offard Muchuwe of ZANU PF who polled 1 534 votes.
Vincent Tsvangirai’s winning tally in the by-elections was 35 percent down from his sister’s tally the previous year.
These results show that both ZANU PF and the MDC-Alliance were complacent in voter mobilisation. This might have been necessitated by the opposition’s traditional enjoyment of victory in urban constituencies or ZANU PF’s difficulties in penetrating these constituencies.
The turning point in Zimbabwe’s history of by-elections was experienced during the March 26, 2022, polls. Both ZANU PF and CCC contested in 28 constituencies that were necessitated by the recall of opposition MPs.
Of the contested 28 seats, 21 seats belonged to the opposition while seven to ZANU PF. However, following the by-elections, ZANU PF successfully retained the seven seats it had won in 2018 and won an extra two seats in the Epworth and Mutasa South constituencies.
In that by-election, ZANU PF won 48,3 percent of the votes, while the CCC won 48,9 percent, with the MDC-Alliance taking home 2,6 percent. This was despite the fact that only eight of the constituencies were rural and 20 were urban seats where opposition parties tend to do better.
Indications since the March 26 by-elections are that a non-complacent ZANU PF can fish in the opposition’s pond. Of the total votes cast then, ZANU PF received 128 399 votes while the CCC had a total 129 799 votes. Between the two parties, there only existed a difference of 1 400 votes.
Political changes are happening. ZANU PF now holds seven seats in the Harare Metropolitan Province, the largest since opposition inroads in 2000.
The Glen View South by-election now comes at a time when ZANU PF’s popularity is surging nationally because of the absence of an organised opposition, the people’s sympathy towards the revolutionary party and the disappointments opposition followers have experienced with splits and backstabbing in their camp.
With tomorrow’s race being contested by ZANU PF’s Cde Tsitsi Tawomera; National Constitutional Assembly (NCA)’s Perpetua Mukanda, and independent candidates George Makwangwaidze, Tonderai Chakeredza and Tungamirai Madzokere, the hope is the ruling Zanu PF party will continue on its upward trajectory.
