Online Reporter
Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
INFLATION slowed in May after two consecutive months of increases, signalling growing resilience in the economy despite mounting global and regional price pressures linked to fuel costs, shipping disruptions and currency movements.
Latest figures released by the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) showed that the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) month-on-month inflation rate fell to 0,5 percent in May from 1,1 percent in April, while annual inflation eased to 4,4 percent from 4,8 percent recorded the previous month.
The slowdown comes at a time when many economies across Southern Africa continue to battle imported inflation, driven by volatile fuel prices, global supply chain disruptions and exchange rate pressures.
Figures showed that the ZiG month-on-month food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rate declined to 0,8 percent in May from 1,5 percent in April, while non-food inflation slowed to 0,3 percent from 0,9 percent. The mean ZiG month-on-month inflation rate between January and May this year stood at 0,4 percent, significantly lower than the 1,2 percent average recorded during the same period last year.
Economists say the latest figures suggest that tight monetary conditions and relative exchange rate stability are beginning to cushion the economy from external shocks that continue to affect global markets.
Analysts warn that imported inflation pressures remain present, particularly within the United States dollar segment of the economy.
The USD annual inflation rate rose to 2,8 percent in May from 2,2 percent in April, reflecting the continued impact of imported costs on businesses and consumers. The USD month-on-month inflation rate eased to 0,3 percent from 1,1 percent recorded in April.
Industrialist Dr Nxaba Ndiweni said global supply chain disruptions were increasingly affecting businesses reliant on imported raw materials, machinery and finished products.
“The global logistics environment remains unstable,” he said.
“Shipping routes have become longer and more expensive due to geopolitical tensions affecting major trade corridors, while flight disruptions have also increased costs for time-sensitive imports.
“Businesses are paying more for freight, insurance and storage. Those costs eventually find their way into local prices.”
Dr Ndiweni said the disruptions were affecting both manufacturers and retailers as companies struggled to maintain predictable supply schedules.
“Import-dependent economies naturally feel the impact first because every increase in shipping or freight costs pushes up the landed cost of goods,” he said.
Global shipping markets have faced renewed pressure in recent months following disruptions along key international trade routes, resulting in higher freight charges and delays in cargo movement.
The situation has contributed to imported inflation across several economies, particularly those heavily reliant on imports for fuel, industrial inputs and consumer goods.
Economist Mr Farai Jokonya said fuel prices remained one of the biggest inflation transmission channels in Zimbabwe because transport costs affected nearly every sector of the economy.
“Fuel has a direct impact on production, distribution and retail pricing structures,” he said.
“Once fuel prices rise globally, the effect quickly spreads across the economy through transport and logistics costs.”
Mr Jokonya said the Government’s decision to remove duty on diesel had helped reduce the inflationary impact of rising global fuel-related costs.
“The removal of diesel duty helped soften pressure on transport operators, industry and agriculture,” he said. “Without that intervention, the pass-through effect on inflation could have been much stronger.”
He said the moderation in inflation reflected a combination of monetary discipline, relatively stable exchange rates and targeted policy interventions aimed at protecting productive sectors.
Across the region, several economies continue to experience inflation pressures linked to energy costs, currency volatility and imported goods. Botswana recently recorded a sharp jump in annual inflation to 10,3 percent in April 2026 from 4,2 percent in March, largely driven by increases in fuel prices, transport fares and medical aid costs.
The authorities in Botswana said imported tradeables inflation surged to 17,8 percent following upward fuel price adjustments.
South Africa, while maintaining relatively lower inflation levels, continues to face pressure from imported costs, weak economic growth and energy-related risks. The South African Reserve Bank recently indicated that inflation was expected to average around 3,6 percent this year amid ongoing global uncertainty and oil market volatility.
Zambia has also been battling inflationary pressures despite improvements in currency stability and foreign exchange inflows.
Annual inflation in Zambia eased to 6,8 percent in April 2026 from 7,1 percent in March, helped by slowing food inflation and a stronger kwacha, although the authorities warned that rising fuel prices and weaker regional trade activity remained significant risks.
Against this backdrop, analysts say Zimbabwe’s latest inflation moderation could strengthen confidence that domestic policy measures are helping to absorb some of the shocks affecting regional economies.
Small retailers, however, say pressure remains high on businesses that depend heavily on South African imports.
A Harare-based retailer, Mr Tapiwa Chari, said the strengthening of the South African rand had significantly increased restocking costs in recent months.
“Most of our stock comes from South Africa, so when the rand strengthens, suppliers immediately adjust prices,” he said. “Even basic household goods are becoming more expensive to restock. The challenge is that customers’ incomes are not rising at the same pace, so retailers are squeezed between higher costs and weak consumer spending.”
Mr Chari said wholesalers were now changing prices more frequently due to currency movements and transport-related costs. “We are seeing constant adjustments on groceries, beverages and other fast-moving products because import costs keep shifting,” he said.
While risks linked to global oil markets, shipping disruptions and currency movements remain, the latest inflation figures suggest Zimbabwe has entered a period of improving price stability despite a difficult global economic environment.
Analysts say maintaining tight monetary conditions and protecting exchange rate stability will remain critical to ensuring that external shocks do not reverse recent gains in inflation moderation.
