Sundaymail Editor
Tawanda Musarurwa
CHECK POINT DESK
ZIMBABWE’S labour market is evolving.
This analysis examines the key shifts in employment and their broader economic implications.
Drawing from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat)’s Quarterly Labour Force Surveys (QLFS) for the fourth quarter of 2021, the second quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024, this article highlights both the resilience and vulnerability of the economy, as well as its quiet engine: informal workers.
Key trends at a glance
Informal sector dominance
As at the end of Q3 (third quarter) 2024, informal non-agricultural jobs accounted for 43,6 percent of total employment, down from 46,4 percent in 2021. Notwithstanding the 6 percent decline, informal jobs still account for the bulk of employment.
Agriculture’s zigzag
Employment in agriculture was 20,3 percent (2021), rising to 21,4 percent in Q2 2022, before sliding back to 20,3 percent (2024), perhaps reflecting issues such as climate change pressures.
The country experienced a severe drought during the 2023/2024 growing season, largely attributed to the El Niño phenomenon.
Youths
Youth unemployment (15-24 years) surged to 41,2 percent in 2024, from 35,2 percent in 2021, with the NEET (Not in education, employment or training) rate at 48,1 percent in 2024 (from 46,8 percent in 2021).
Formal sector stagnation
Formal non-agricultural jobs hovered around 30 percent of employment in Q3 2024, from 28,9 percent, showing minimal growth despite Government targets.
SECTOR DEEP DIVES
Employees shift from agriculture
Although agriculture remains the backbone of the country’s economy, the sector has seen steady erosion in employment share.
While agriculture’s share of employment declined between 2021 and 2024, there was a 5 percent increase in the number of employees in the sector.
This indicates that the sector’s growth lagged behind that of other industries.
In Q4 2021, 617 055 worked in agriculture.
The figure rose to 695 566 in Q2 2022, but by Q3 2024, this had dropped to 648 126. Why?
Climate shocks (droughts) and limited investment in smallholder farmers have likely pushed workers into informal trading or urban migration.
According to the 2022 Zimbabwe population census, the country is urbanising, with 5,86 million people living in urban areas out of the total population of 15,18 million, a 38,6 percent share, up from 33 percent in 2012.
Meanwhile, the decline in agriculture’s share of employment is stuck in household-based agriculture, which shrunk from 4,4 percent to 6,1 percent of employment, indicative of the fragility of subsistence farming in a country where rains can be erratic.
Mining: The missing puzzle?
While mining is a key export earner, ZimStat’s QLFS reports lack direct sectoral breakdowns.
However, indirect clues suggest limited job creation.
Formal sector growth (for example, mining) was muted, rising only 2 percentage points (26 percent to 28,9 percent) from 2021 to 2024.
Informal mining (artisanal) likely absorbed some agricultural workers but remains uncaptured in official data.
Tourism: A partial recovery
The local tourism sector, hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, shows signs of rebound.
In 2021, the services sector (including tourism) struggled with lockdowns.
As at the end of Q4 2024, there were signs of improvement, but employment shifts were masked under “informal non-agriculture” (for example, tourism artefacts vendors and tour guides).
This is because, while formal tourism jobs (hotels and agencies, for example) are scarce, many workers in the sector rely on gig-based informal roles.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing’s share of employment has barely moved.
In 2021, formal non-agricultural (including manufacturing) employment was 26 percent.
By 2024, it had risen to 30 percent, but the growth is concentrated in low-value informal production.
The QLFS does not isolate manufacturing, but stagnant formal employment suggests the sector is not driving job growth.
Retail and services: The informal lifeline
Retail and services are the economy’s stealth engines, dominated by informal trade.
As at the end of Q3 2024, informal non-agriculture (retail, repairs, et cetera) accounted for 43,6 percent of jobs.
While informal trade cushions unemployment, the benefits are limited, for example, in relation to retirement.
The country’s statutory social security scheme — National Social Security Authority (NSSA) — is working on a social security scheme targeted at informal sector workers.
Said NSSA deputy director, marketing and communication, Mr Tendai Mutseyekwa: “The latest on the informal sector scheme is that we are waiting for ZimStat to present findings of the needs assessment survey, which will inform the scheme’s construct.
“It will then be subject to extensive client feedback before trying it on pilot basis. Occupational, safety and health will be included.”
Impact of the informal sector
Informal employment is not just a statistic — it is a reality for many.
The definition of informal employment used by ZimStat includes unregistered businesses, unpaid family labour and jobs without contracts.
As at the end of Q3 2024, 63,9 percent of employed Zimbabweans worked informally (agriculture and informal non-agriculture), a drop from 65,9 percent in Q2 2022.
In Q4 2021, that figure stood at 66,7 percent.
Although informal employment still accounts for much of the country’s employment, the data shows a gradual decline in the share of Zimbabweans working informally over the past three years.
Interestingly, according to the Q3 2024 QLFS, 40 percent of informal workers report “wanting more hours”.
This probably means that, while the informal economy absorbs workers, it does not always provide adequate income.
For a more condensed picture, statistics from the Finscope Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Survey Zimbabwe (2022) indicated that the country had 1 639 807 micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) business owners.
The study also has a broadened definition of MSMEs that includes 1,1 million “self-employed individuals”.
This increases the number of MSME owners to 2,7 million and boosts the sector’s total employment to 3 006 562.
A divided recovery
The story of Zimbabwe’s labour market is two-pronged: Although both mining and manufacturing have registered some growth, these formal sectors are failing to effectively absorb labour due to issues such as high mechanisation.
The informal economy is acting as the de facto safety net, but without the requisite safety nets.
Policy implications
The QLFS data trends show that the future of work in Zimbabwe could remain informal for some time, although a downward trend in informality is visible.
The employment-to-population ratio, which measures the proportion of the working-age population that is employed, shows a slight upward trend, rising to 37,2 percent in Q3 2024, from 35 percent in Q2 2022 and 33 percent in Q4 2021.
There is room for policy action.
With climate change concerns now ever-present, it is important for the Government and its partners to revitalise smallholder farmers with climate-smart grants, for instance.
To increase formalisation in the economy, the Government can incentivise informal businesses to register without overwhelming them with taxes.
Increasing youth programmes has the potential to address NEET issues, through vocational training tied to sectors like renewable energy, which offer diverse job opportunities.
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