Online Reporter
Saxon Zvina
Correspondent
ON May 1, 2026, the global economy enters a new reality. When China halts sulphuric acid exports, it is not merely adjusting trade policy—it is detonating a bomb at the base of the modern industrial supply chain.
To the casual observer, this looks like Beijing seizing a geopolitical moment. To those of us tracking the collapse of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—down over 90 percent within days of the escalation, according to Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) data—this is a strategic necessity dressed as retaliation. China is hoarding. And the rest of the world is about to burn.
I have spent decades mapping commodity vulnerabilities. I can say with confidence: The confluence of China’s export halt and the Middle East sulphur cut-off constitutes the most severe shock to global industrial chemistry since the 1970s oil embargo. This analysis dissects the impact on the United States, the European Union, and the Global South, while charting a survival path for Africa.
Chemistry of crisis: Why this is worse than oil
Before examining regional impacts, we must respect the molecule. Sulphuric acid is the most produced chemical on earth by volume, yet it is rarely noticed until it disappears.
The current crisis is a “double tap”. The Hormuz blockade (supply shock) shows that the Gulf region accounts for about 45 percent of global seaborne sulphur trade. Sulphur is the primary feedstock for sulphuric acid. With tanker traffic at a standstill and war-risk insurance premiums spiking from 0, 25 percent to as high as 10 percent of vessel value, this supply line is severed.
Secondly, there is the China ban, or logistics shock. As the world’s largest producer (via smelter by-product), China has pulled the plug on exports to secure domestic fertiliser and battery production. This eliminates the last major “swing supplier” from the market.
The result is not just higher prices; it is a bifurcation of global supply. The West and the Global South are now competing for a dramatically shrinking pie.
The United States presents a fascinating paradox. On the surface, it looks resilient. Beneath, it is deeply vulnerable.
While the US is a major agricultural exporter, it relies heavily on phosphate fertilisers. The US imports a significant portion of its finished fertilisers and the sulphur necessary to process domestic phosphate rock. According to Fitch Ratings, while North American chemical producers may gain a competitive advantage in plastics due to cheap domestic natural gas (ethane), the sulphur/acid market is global and priced at the margin.
The impact is that American farmers will face the same 15-20 percent rise in fertiliser input costs that the FAO projects for the global market. For the US maize belt, this means reduced application rates and lower yields in the 2026 season.
The critical minerals nightmare (rare earths and batteries)
This is where the US feels the sharpest pain. The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was built on the assumption of accessible industrial chemicals.
With regards to battery supply chains, the US ambition to refine nickel and cobalt for EV batteries relies on High-Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) technology. HPAL consumes vast quantities of sulphuric acid. Without Chinese imports or Middle Eastern sulphur to make it domestically, US-based refineries (like those funded in the battery belt) face “care and maintenance” shutdowns.
The issue of rare earth processing is the silent crisis. Separating Rare Earth Elements (REEs) from ore requires a complex series of acid-based solvent extraction circuits. The US currently lacks the chemical infrastructure to process REEs at scale without imported acid. If the US wants to break its rare earth dependency on China, it needs acid. China just cut the supply. This creates a “Catch-22” that will delay Pentagon timelines for magnet production by 18-24 months.
The European Union is the industrial heartland under siege. Europe is the “Ground Zero” of this crisis. Unlike the US, Europe does not have abundant cheap energy, and unlike the Middle East, it does not have local sulphur.
Fitch Ratings noted that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will materially threaten the credit profiles of chemical issuers in Europe. Europe relies on the Middle East for 10-20 percent of its chemical feedstock.
For automotive textiles, sulphuric acid is essential for producing titanium dioxide (paints) and synthetic fibres. European automakers already struggling with energy costs will now face higher prices for batteries, paint, and interior textiles.
For fertiliser plants, major European chemical hubs (Germany, Netherlands) are gas-intensive. With natural gas prices spiking due to the Hormuz closure, the production of ammonia (and subsequent fertilizers) is becoming uneconomical. We will see permanent closures of capacity that will never return.
The defence dilemma
As reported by Defence Express, sulphuric acid is critical for etching printed circuit boards and purifying copper used in microelectronics. Without a stable supply of acid, European defence contractors cannot produce the guidance systems for missiles or the electronics for drones.
The EU is discovering that “strategic autonomy” is impossible without control over industrial acids.
For Africa, the news is dire, but it is also a catalyst. FAO has identified Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique as heavily exposed due to high dependence on fertiliser imports. We face a food security crisis.
However, crying over lost imports is futile. The era of cheap Chinese acid is over. It is time to pivot.
The case for organic & bio-fertilisers
This is not just a niche solution; it is a strategic imperative.
The Chinese model has aggressively pushed “green” organic fertilisers (derived from crop waste, animal manure and bio-fermenters) to reduce soil acidification caused by synthetic chemicals.
Africa’s advantage is that it has massive biomass availability. We do not need to import sulphur to make organic fertilizer. We need investment in digesters and composting facilities.
The mitigation strategy is that governments must immediately subsidise the transition to bio-fertilisers for smallholder farmers. While yields per hectare may be slightly lower than peak synthetic fertilizers, it is better than having no fertiliser at all. We must treat organic waste as a national security asset.
The “Kemcore Model”
The private sector is moving. Kemcore’s recent announcement of processing plants in Botswana (targeting 57 500 tonnes annually) is the exact template required. But we need 10 more such plants across the continent. Africa must build its own chemical industry using locally smelted by-products.
Sector-by-sector breakdown
The worst affected sectors are copper mining in terms of oxide leach in countries such as Chile, DRC, and Zambia. Without acid, oxide ore is worthless. Expect production halts.
Phosphate fertilisers are available in Morocco and the US. But, without sulphur, phosphate rock cannot be turned into food.
EV batteries have also been affected whilst cobalt and nickel refining may grind to a halt.
Strategic recommendations
For the US and EU, they need to activate the Defence Production Act (DPA) immediately to fund domestic sulphur recovery from oil refining (even if dirty).
Africa and the Global South need to declare a ‘soil emergency’ and fast-track regulatory approval for bio-fertilizer startups.
They can also negotiate a barter deal with China and offer critical minerals (lithium, cobalt) in direct exchange for sulphuric acid, bypassing the dollar market.
They also need to build acid regeneration plants in mining regions, invest in plants that recover and regenerate used acid from industrial processes
China’s ban is a masterclass in resource nationalism. It reveals that the green transition is not just about mining metals; it is about having the chemistry to turn rocks into batteries.
The US and Europe will survive, but their inflation rates will spike. The Global South faces a starvation threat. However, within this crisis lies the end of the chemical dependency cycle. Africa must stop importing water (in the form of acid) and start manufacturing value.
The acid is gone. The era of organic resilience has begun.
Saxon Zvina is Principal Consultant at Skyworld Consultancy Services, specializing in geostrategic supply chains and industrial development in emerging markets.Email: [email protected]
X: @saxonzvina2
The global industrial world is facing a massive “chemistry crisis” that could be even bigger than an oil shock! 🧪💥 Starting May 1, 2026, China is banning exports of sulphuric acid—the most produced chemical on Earth—to protect its own supply. Combined with a 90% drop in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz 🚢🚫, this creates a “double tap” that severs the supply of sulphur used in everything from farming to tech.