Online Reporter
Trade Focus-Allan Majuru
Zimbabwe’s aspiration to attain upper middle-income status by 2030 puts emphasis on exports as a key pillar to economic transformation.
EXPORTS generate foreign currency, support industrialisation, create employment and help expand opportunities for local businesses to participate in regional and global value chains.
Export growth is, however, not a walk in the park. Competition for markets is intensifying across the world, making preferential market access and strong trade relationships increasingly important drivers of economic success. This is why the economic diplomacy agenda, championed by His Excellency, President Mnangagwa, has focused on leveraging Zimbabwe’s international relations to unlock trade, investment and market opportunities that can support national development objectives.
The approach is creating pathways for local businesses to access new markets and participate more effectively in international trade. Recent developments in Africa-China trade relations build on these ongoing efforts.
While the zero-tariff arrangement announced by China apply to African countries broadly, it presents Zimbabwean exporters with an opportunity to strengthen their presence in one of the world’s largest markets and build on the country’s export growth ambitions. China’s decision to grant a two-year zero-tariff window on imports from African countries has introduced a new dimension to the continent’s trade relations with Asia’s biggest economy.
Effective May 1, 2026, the measure provides qualifying products from eligible African countries with duty-free access into the Chinese market. Although the arrangement applies across much of the continent, its implications will differ from country to country depending on productive capacity, export readiness and the ability to meet market requirements.
For Zimbabwe, the significance of the initiative is not just in the removal of tariffs.Rather, it presents an opportunity to consolidate existing exports, diversify into new product categories and strengthen participation in global value chains linked to one of the world’s largest importing nations.
The two-year tariff-free window should ultimately be viewed as a strategic opportunity rather than an end.
Preferential access creates favourable conditions, but long-term success will depend on how effectively businesses and policymakers respond.
Countries that strengthen standards compliance, improve logistics, diversify exports and invest in value addition are likely to derive the greatest benefits.
The initiative also comes as Zimbabwe and China continue engagements under the Framework for Economic Partnerships for Shared Growth, a platform aimed at deepening cooperation in trade, industrial development, supply chains and economic modernisation.
The new measure in brief
At its core, the zero-tariff arrangement removes customs duties that would ordinarily be charged on qualifying imports entering China from eligible African countries.
The measure effectively lowers the cost of African products in the Chinese market, improving their price competitiveness relative to goods from countries that continue to face normal tariff rates.
For Zimbabwe, products such as cotton, which faced tariffs as high as 40 percent, macadamia nuts (24 percent), natural gums and resins (15 percent), essential oils (15 percent), leather and reptile hides (14 percent), oranges (11 percent) and unmanufactured tobacco (10 percent) will become more price-competitive against suppliers from non-African markets still facing import duties. The tariff relief, therefore, turns an existing export basket into a sharper commercial proposition, allowing producers to compete on quality and supply reliability, as well as on price.
Although the arrangement is being implemented on a non-reciprocal basis, meaning African countries are not required to offer similar concessions in return, exporters must still satisfy China’s rules of origin requirements to qualify for duty-free treatment. The significance of the initiative is in its potential to improve market access for a broad range of African products at a time when China remains one of the world’s largest importers of agricultural commodities, minerals and manufactured goods.
However, tariff elimination should not be confused with automatic market entry.
Products must still comply with China’s sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, quality standards and other regulatory measures. As a result, the countries and businesses that stand to benefit most are those capable of consistently meeting market requirements while supplying products that are aligned with Chinese demand.
Current trade
Trade figures illustrate the strategic importance of the Chinese market to Zimbabwe. Exports to China increased from approximately US$960 million in 2021 to a peak of US$2,44 billion in 2024, representing cumulative growth of more than 150 percent over that period.
Although exports moderated to approximately US$2,11 billion in 2025, the broader trend points to sustained Chinese demand for Zimbabwean products and highlights the growing importance of the market within Zimbabwe’s export portfolio.
The figures also reveal an important reality. Zimbabwe has already established a presence in the Chinese market.
The question, therefore, is not whether opportunities exist, but whether local businesses can position themselves to capture a greater share. The answer will depend on market access, and the ability to diversify exports, strengthen competitiveness and move into higher-value segments of international trade. A closer examination of current trade patterns points to both strengths and vulnerabilities. Zimbabwe’s exports to China remain heavily concentrated in a few primary commodities.
Unmanufactured tobacco generated approximately US$788 million in export earnings in 2024, while mineral products such as vermiculite, chromium ores and ferro-alloys accounted for a significant share of total exports. Together, these products continue to underpin Zimbabwe’s exports into the Chinese market, benefitting from strong industrial demand and established supply chains.
However, the concentration of exports within a narrow range of commodities highlights a structural challenge that has long characterised many resource-dependent economies. Dependence on a limited number of products exposes exporters to commodity price fluctuations and shifts in international demand. It also limits opportunities for value capture, as a significant proportion of exports leaves the country in raw or minimally processed form.
The zero-tariff arrangement presents an opportunity to address this challenge.
Greater access to the Chinese market can support efforts to broaden the export basket and develop new value chains capable of generating higher returns.
Success in this regard will strengthen the resilience of Zimbabwe’s export sector while creating new opportunities for businesses across agriculture, manufacturing and mining.
Expanding on existing opportunities
Agriculture is one sector where considerable scope exists for expansion.
Rising incomes and changing consumption patterns in China continue to drive demand for high-quality food products, creating opportunities for exporters who can meet market requirements.
There is room to expand exports of horticultural produce and other high-end value-added agricultural products.
Chinese consumers and regulators place considerable emphasis on product quality and safety, making compliance a prerequisite for sustained market participation.
To meet these requirements, we must develop and strengthen quality assurance systems, laboratory testing facilities, certification mechanisms and farmer support programmes if the country is to maximise the benefits of the tariff-free window.
Beyond products that already have market access, opportunities exist to broaden agricultural exports through the conclusion of additional phytosanitary protocols.
Products such as sesame, chillies, peas and other high-potential crops offer scope for diversification and could help establish new export value chains.
Expanding the range of products eligible for export will increase export earnings and create opportunities for greater participation by smallholder farmers and rural enterprises.
Value addition and beneficiation
Apart from the agriculture sector, mining is expected to remain a major contributor to Zimbabwe’s exports to China.
Strong Chinese demand for minerals continues to support exports of chrome and other mineral products, while growing global demand for energy transition minerals is creating additional opportunities.
Zimbabwe’s substantial lithium resources position the country favourably within emerging global supply chains linked to battery manufacturing and renewable energy technologies. A crucial reality must, however, be addressed. The greatest economic gains are unlikely to come from exporting larger volumes of raw minerals.
Greater value can be realised through beneficiation and processing, enabling the country to capture a larger share of the value generated along the supply chain.
Increased processing activity supports industrialisation, creates employment and strengthens linkages with other sectors of the economy. The importance of value addition becomes even more obvious when viewed against the broader structure of Zimbabwe-China trade.
While Zimbabwe exports primarily commodities, imports from China are dominated by higher-value manufactured goods, machinery, telecommunications equipment, motor vehicles and industrial inputs.
Chinese exports to Zimbabwe increased from approximately US$920 million in 2021 to around US$1,84 billion in 2025, reflecting strong demand for capital equipment and manufactured products.
Many of these imports play an important role in supporting productive sectors of the economy.
Machinery, mining equipment and industrial technologies contribute to productivity and capacity expansion.
Nonetheless, the long-term objective remains the development of a stronger domestic manufacturing base capable of producing a greater proportion of value-added goods for both domestic and export markets.
Viewed through this, the zero-tariff initiative should not be regarded solely as a trade measure.
It should also be viewed as an instrument that can support industrial development.
Expanded market access can create incentives for investment in processing, manufacturing and export-oriented production, particularly in sectors where Zimbabwe possesses a competitive advantage.
Logistics and trade facilitation are important
Competitiveness, however, extends beyond production.
Logistics and trade facilitation will play a decisive role in determining whether exporters can fully exploit the opportunity.
For high-value perishables such as citrus, avocados and blueberries, speed to market and product integrity are critical.
Delays along transport corridors or at border posts can quickly erode competitiveness regardless of tariff advantages.
Investments in cold-chain infrastructure, storage facilities, packhouses and efficient transport systems will, therefore, be essential.
Equally important are measures aimed at streamlining customs procedures, reducing administrative bottlenecks and improving export documentation processes.
Improved logistics can lower transaction costs and enhance the competitiveness of Zimbabwean products in distant markets.
Exporters must be financed
Export financing is another area requiring attention.
Many businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, possess products with export potential but lack the financial resources required to scale production, secure certification or meet international market requirements.
Greater access to affordable financing, export insurance and technical support services can help bridge this gap and facilitate broader participation in export markets.
Allan Majuru is the chief executive officer of ZimTrade.
