Online Reporter
Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
THE United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has forecast Zimbabwe’s economy to maintain its strong growth trajectory with a minimum 3,8 percent expansion this year, anchored by rapid stabilisation and significant improvement across key fundamentals.
Zimbabwe’s economy was forecast to rebound from a weaker 2 percent expansion in 2024, due to the impact of the El Niño-induced drought, to a 6,6 percent expansion last year, following a better rainfall season and rally in key minerals, among other factors.
The Southern African nation has also benefited from supportive Government policies, a more stable operating environment after introducing a foreign currency and gold-backed local currency.
Along with record output in key agricultural commodities like maize and wheat, Zimbabwe has also registered strong performance on key fundamentals like exports, balance of trade and the current account.
Zimbabwe has seen inflation drop from a high of 95,8 percent in July last year to 15 percent by December, while the ZiG exchange rate remained largely stable at 26,7 to the US dollar through 2025.
This reflects the growing positive impact of improving key economic fundamentals.
The ECA made the forecast on Zimbabwe’s expected performance in its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 (WESP 2026) report, launched in Addis Ababa today.
After a 3,8 percent expansion in 2025, EAC expects the economy to register further solid growth of 4,2 percent in 2026 and 4,4 percent in 2027, under its baseline scenario.
The forecasts are partly estimated and are based on the UN DESA (Department of Economic and Social Affairs) World Economic Forecasting Model, reflecting gradual recovery momentum following challenges experienced in the past few years.
The ECA forecast growth outlook places Zimbabwe slightly above the Southern Africa regional average, projected to surge from 1,6 percent in 2025 to 2 percent in 2026, remaining subdued relative to other African sub-regions.
The World Bank recently projected Zimbabwe’s economy to grow by about 5 percent this year, placing its forecast above the expected global average. The multilateral lender sees strong growth for Zim, despite the expected slowdown of world economic growth and global uncertainties that remain elevated.
Zimbabwe’s Treasury says that the positive 2026 outlook is anchored on improving fundamentals rather than short-term gains.
Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube said the outlook remained positive across most productive sectors, which are expected to drive overall economic expansion.
“In 2026, the prognosis of the economy is on track as we expect the economy to grow by five percent. The agriculture and mining sectors are expected to lead overall growth, especially taking into account the viable global commodity prices.
“What is now needed is to redistribute the gains into the education, health and social programmes for the benefit of the citizenry,” he said.
The Treasury chief has repeatedly linked growth prospects to stability in prices, the exchange rate and the prudent management of public finances.
Launching the report, the ECA said Africa’s overall growth outlook remained resilient despite a more fragmented global trade environment. Economic growth across the continent is projected to rise to 4 percent in 2026 and 4,1 percent in 2027, from 3,9 percent in 2025, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions in several large economies.
“The acceleration reflects greater macroeconomic stability in several large economies, supporting investment and consumer spending,” the report said.
For Zimbabwe, the UN agency notes that recent efforts to stabilise inflation, improve exchange-rate management and tighten fiscal discipline are beginning to support economic activity, even as structural weaknesses persist.
“Improved macroeconomic stability supports growth, but monetary and fiscal policy space is limited,” the report cautioned, underscoring the fragile nature of the recovery.
Against this backdrop, Zimbabwe’s projected growth path suggests relative resilience, driven by agriculture recovery, mining output and services activity, though the report cautions that gains remain vulnerable to policy slippage and external financing constraints.
Presenting the report, Mr Hopestone Chavula, officer-in-charge of ECA’s macroeconomic analysis section, said recovery across Africa remained uneven.
“Africa’s growth recovery remains uneven across subregions. While East Africa continues to lead growth momentum, other parts of the continent are constrained by structural challenges and exposure to external shocks,” Mr Chavula said.
Southern Africa’s slower pace reflects persistent electricity constraints, weak industrial output, climate-related shocks and heightened exposure to changing global trade dynamics.
The report also highlights increased vulnerability to higher United States tariffs, which could weigh on exports from the region.
