Future climate change projections gloomy

1961-90 levels, which era is regarded peak since records were established in the early 20th century.
Temperatures are seen warming at a rate of 0,15 degrees Celsius to 0,55 degrees Celsius per decade, which is an increase of up to 3,85 degrees Celsius in just 70 years.
In the last century, Zimbabwe’s mean temperatures have risen 0,7 degrees Celsius, and the results from just this considered small increase have been devastating.
Climate change expert at Environment Africa in Harare Mr Collin Mutasa said the climate change outlook for Zimbabwe was gloomy, particularly for a society that is dependent on agriculture.
“Annual rainfall will decrease across Zimbabwe. The decrease will occur in all seasons, but it is more conclusive for the early and late rains than for the main rainy season months of December to February,” he said.
“The frequency and duration of dry spells is also likely to increase. Extreme climate events such as dry conditions, heat waves and heavy precipitation will become more intense and frequent, as well as the risk of drought and flood events.”
The changing climatic conditions in Zimbabwe are expected to be in line with changes within Southern Africa and the rest of the world.
For Southern Africa, scientists say temperatures were projected to rise by between two and four degrees Celsius, as a result of higher carbon dioxide emissions, which will double within the next 100 years.
Rainfall in the region will decline by up to 15 percent, and rise similarly in other areas.
Globally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says if the current growth in greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs) are not reduced on time, particularly those induced by human activity, the world was on course for an unsustainable warming of 6 degrees Celsius by 2100.
It says the world is now experiencing its worst concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere in nearly half a million years.
There are at least 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere versus the desired 350ppm, which is considered manageable.
At the current rate of GHG production, the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide will hit 600ppm in the next century.
PPM is the measurement for CO2. The IPCC’s key Fifth Assessment Report to be released next year is widely expected to provide new scientific evidence on the science of climate change globally, and help shape the design of future response strategies.
Mr Mutasa said there was abundant evidence climate was progressively changing in Zimbabwe with catastrophic outcomes.
He said temperatures had risen across the country since 1900 with greater changes witnessed at Harare, Beitbridge and Bulawayo where daily minimum temperatures had grown 2,6 degrees Celsius and maximum by 2 degrees Celsius.
Between 1950 and 1990, he said, the number of days with maximum temperatures equal to or above 30 degrees Celsius had increased while those with a minimum of 12 degrees Celsius declined.
Rainfall has decreased 5 percent, as rain events were now also intense and frequent.
Mr Mutasa said studies had also shown that some of Zimbabwe’s natural ecological regions were either expanding or shrinking as a result of climate change and global warming.
Stations like Chinhoyi, Chivero and their surroundings have moved to a more drier region three from region two, and yet even region three has moved slightly upwards such that areas like Kwekwe had now been pushed into region four, which is mostly semi-arid.
But should fear rule? No. There are options to be pursued to limit the impact of climate change and global warming, in this case, Zimbabwe warming on humanity, animals and their environs.
One such strategy is that people adapt to any changes in the climate system. Indeed, people’s lifestyles must change to fit into the sphere of climate change, their agricultural and food production systems, water, energy, eating habits, everything must change.
One of the key adaptation strategies that Zimbabwe could employ was the development and promotion of drought-resistant and early maturing crop varieties.
Mr Mutasa said accurate climate change information must also be readily available, as well as implementing rainwater harvesting, increased use of irrigation, cross-breeding and rearing of smaller livestock such as sheep and goats.
“Climate forecasting and advice must get to Government, farmers, private sector and extension workers on time,” he said.
“It is also important that alternative options of livelihoods are promoted and strengthened.”
On mitigation, which is another tool that is central in tackling the effects of climate change, Mr Mutasa said there must be improved energy efficiency and the promotion of carbon limiting growth through sustainable management of land use, land use change and forestry.
It was also important that Government advanced the use of and investment in renewable energy technologies, improve livestock waste management as well monitor the use and formulation of fertilisers.
The main challenge for Zimbabwe was to get all these strategies working, especially in face of acute funding constraints.
Moreso, the one-size fits all approach will not work. People in different regions are affected by climate change in different ways requiring different adaptive and mitigatory actions.
These actions must be clearly defined and packaged to suit specific problem areas.
God is faithful.