Online Reporter
Theseus Mauruki Shambare
THE Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department (MSD) says there is a high probability that an El Niño weather phenomenon could develop during the 2026/27 rainy season, raising concerns over the possibility of below-normal rainfall and drier-than-average conditions across the country.
In a preliminary climate update issued on April 29, the MSD said recent assessments from global climate forecasting centres indicate an 88 to 94 percent chance of an El Niño event developing during the upcoming agricultural season.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is often linked to reduced rainfall in Southern Africa, including Zimbabwe.
According to the MSD, historical trends show that El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe carry a 65 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall, a development that can negatively affect crop production, water availability and livestock conditions.
However, the department cautioned that forecasts made this early in the year remain subject to uncertainty due to what scientists refer to as the “spring predictability barrier”, where atmospheric and oceanic conditions can still shift significantly before the start of the rainy season.
“Because of this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and warns the public and stakeholders against making final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary models,” the department said in a statement.
The MSD said a more definitive national climate outlook would be released in August 2026 following the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF).
The report, to be released under the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF), is expected to incorporate more recent data and provide clearer scientific guidance for seasonal planning by farmers, businesses and policymakers.
Despite the early warning signals, the department urged the public and the farming community to remain calm and avoid panic-driven decision-making.
Instead, farmers have been encouraged to proceed with standard preparations for the forthcoming cropping season while beginning to adopt climate-resilient farming practices.
The department recommended measures such as water conservation, improved moisture retention techniques and the identification of drought-tolerant seed varieties to minimise potential climate-related risks.
“Stakeholders are encouraged to stay informed exclusively through official MSD channels for regular updates as the weather outlook becomes clearer in the months ahead,” read part of the statement.
Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector remains highly dependent on rainfall, making seasonal forecasts critical for planning in crop and livestock production, water resource management and food security.
The country experienced severe drought conditions during the last El Niño cycle, which affected harvests, dam levels and livelihoods in several provinces, prompting increased emphasis on climate adaptation and resilience-building strategies.
The MSD said it will continue monitoring global climate developments and provide updates as more reliable forecasting data becomes available ahead of the 2026/27 farming season.
