Online Reporter
Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
Senior Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S continuous economic growth faces a significant setback if the projected Super El Niño weather phenomenon materialises, with the International Monetary Fund warning that the shock could halve the 2027 forecast economic growth.
The IMF has projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5 percent for Zimbabwe this year and sees the expansion moderating to 4,2 percent over the medium term, with agriculture and mining providing key support.
However, the global lender says a stronger-than-expected 2026/27 El Niño could cut the 2027 growth projection by half, while simultaneously reducing Government revenues and increasing spending pressures.
The warning comes after agriculture drove much of Zimbabwe’s strong economic rebound in 2025 following the devastating 2024 drought, caused by another strong El Niño.
Zimbabwe’s real GDP grew by 8,3 percent last year, compared to 1,7 percent in 2024, with the recovery underpinned by improved agricultural production, strong mining activity and elevated gold prices.
The fund said agriculture remains particularly important to Zimbabwe’s economic outlook because a renewed drought would affect not only food production, but also household incomes, trade, fiscal revenues and demand across related sectors.
“Agriculture remains at the centre of Zimbabwe’s development story. A good season not only improves food security but stimulates activity throughout the economy, from transport and logistics to agro-processing and retail trade,” agronomist Ms Pamela Macheka said.
The IMF said the potential El Niño-induced drought shock could lower agricultural output and hydropower generation, worsen food insecurity, increase import requirements and add pressure to both the fiscal and external positions.
It also warned that the risk comes alongside other external threats, including an escalation of the Middle East conflict, which could keep global energy and fertiliser prices high, disrupt shipping and weaken external demand.
