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Kennedy Mavhumashava
Zapu and MDC forged an alliance recently with promises to put up a strong electoral fight. Some of their supporters have hailed it as the “winning formula,” for the 31 July harmonised elections, others touting its “genius and Midas Touch.” But analysts said yesterday that it is an inherently conflictual coalition, fraught with structural defects, which would undermine its electoral chances instead of enhancing them.
University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer, Dr Charity Manyeruke, described the pact as an awkward arrangement which is not only fighting against itself but against others as well. Supposed allies in both formations, she said, are also rivals, vying for the same seats from the presidential race, down to municipal wards.
“It is also a coalition of the weak,” she said.
“It is a coalition of no consequence really. As you know MDC is without support. It has no followers except Welshman (Ncube, its leader) and Priscilla (Misihairabwi-Mushonga, its secretary general). The same applies to Zapu. It is only Dumiso Dabengwa and to see who his followers are except civic organisations, which are briefcase organisations anyway, is difficult. It is a coalition of groups that do not matter and its leaders are probably just seeking donor funding.”
Unveiled on 5 July, a week after the sitting of Nomination Courts on 28 June, the bi-partisan arrangement has its respective candidates pitted against each other in at least 49 National Assembly constituencies, dozens in the Senate and in local government wards.
In addition, Dr Dabengwa and Prof Ncube are among the five presidential candidates.
In recent weeks, the media has speculated on a possible “grand coalition” between the MDCs, Zapu and Mavambo/Kusile/Dawn (MKD).
Representatives of MDC-T, Zapu and MKD confirmed at that time that talks were progressing, but MDC consistently professed ignorance.
Prof Ncube has said he was unwilling to enter into any alliance with MDC-T, which he dismisses as an intolerant and condescending party whose leader, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai is a dictator. A few days after confirming discussions on a possible coalition, Dr Dabengwa said talks had failed because of MDC-T’s paternalistic attitude that assumed that Mr Tsvangirai would lead any coalition.
That opened the way for a Ncube-Dabengwa accord announced in Bulawayo early this month. Prof Ncube and Mrs Misihairabwi-Mushonga signed on behalf of MDC while Dr Dabengwa and his secretary general, Mr Strike Mnkandla signed for their party.
One key clause in the MDC-Zapu agreement, which sources say was put at the insistence of MDC to prevent a possible Zapu-MDC-T alliance, is that the parties would not “discuss or enter into a coalition with any other party other than with each other, namely, MDC and Zapu.”
Mr Gabriel Chaibva, a political analyst, highlighted the structural weaknesses in the MDC-Zapu and MDC-T-MKD-Reketayi Semwayo coalitions. He ridiculed the MDC-T-led one as an alliance between two parties and one person, Mr Semwayo, whom he said pretends to be leader of Zanu-Ndonga. This coalition, he said, is better than the MDC-Zapu one, because it has one presidential candidate. Also, Mr Semwayo is an MDC-T candidate in Chipinge Central.
However, dozens of MKD and MDC-T parliamentary candidates are fighting for the same seats in many constituencies across the country. MKD leader, Dr Simba Makoni, for instance, is a National Assembly candidate for his party in a Manicaland constituency where MDC-T is also fielding its own.
Said Mr Chaibva: “The Zapu-MDC one is an interesting one because they (MDC-Zapu) are saying ‘vote Dabengwa for president, vote Welshman for president’ and turn around to say ‘we are in a coalition,’” he said.
“They have redefined what a political coalition is. We have to go back to our dictionaries. But at the end of the day, it is an unworkable alliance of dwarfs.”
MDC and Zapu have said their double-fielding of candidates was because the proclamation of the date of elections and that of the sitting of nomination courts came too soon for them to form a better pact. This, they admit, would have an obvious effect of splitting their own votes.
“With respect to the issue of the two parties’ presidential candidature, the parties expressed the desirability of consolidating their share of votes by not splitting the votes. They however, acknowledged the complexity of the issue and undertook to consult their respective executive committee to get guidance,” reads part of the agreement.
Only Rodger Muhlwa, formerly Zapu candidate for Bulawayo East, has withdrawn from the race. This left MDC’s David Coltart facing Zanu-PF’s Cde Kevin Muzvidziwa and MDC-T’s Thabitha Khumalo.
Mr Chaibva said the likely impact of what he termed the “southern alliance” was to block Mr Tsvangirai and his “northern alliance” mustering any substantial votes in Matabeleland region where the MDC-Zapu axis looks strong.
“They are clearly marking Tsvangirai,” he said.
“They want to forestall any chance of him getting anything from that region. It is a snub on Tsvangirai. The battle will be there (Matabeleland region) because this is where Tsvangirai claims support and both parties (MDC and Zapu) as well. But it is Tsvangirai who will suffer.”
He said the MDCs, MKD and Zapu were under pressure from their Western donors to structure a form of election coalition to stand a chance of beating Zanu-PF. Personal differences, he said, have thwarted its success.
“Our last elections were held in March 2008 so they knew that the next elections would be held after five years,” said Mr Chaibva.
“They had five years to work any arrangement, but decided to agree after the nomination court. Serious people should have united long back.
They are showing they lack forward planning. Nothing came too soon for anyone.”
About 49 National Assembly representatives of both formations are competing against each other and candidates from other parties. Zapu does not have candidates in 160 constituencies where MDC does, so they would join hands in these areas.
A media lecturer at Midlands State University, Dr Nhamo Mhiripiri, said the fact that the decision for a party representative to step down from the election rests with the individual candidate means that the MDC-Zapu agreement was loose.
He said there was a lot of duplication of roles in the coalition which would split their vote and give room for other parties to claim votes in south-western Zimbabwe.
“Administratively,” he said, “they should have sat down and allocated each other seats, not to compete against each other as they are doing. But this issue about duplicate candidates could be a strategy. They might want to surprise, especially Zanu-PF by coming together as one coalition at some point and back one candidate. So Zanu-PF must watch out because if that happens it would be a new ball game altogether. At the same time, this might backfire because the parties might also confuse even their own supporters.”
A candidate is legally able to withdraw from an election within nine days after the sitting of the nomination court.
Mrs Misihairabwi-Mushonga acknowledged the weaknesses of the MDC-Zapu coalition on “allies who are also rivals” but claimed it would beneficial in uniting their structures in provinces outside Matabeleland where Zapu was thin on the ground and not fielding any candidates. She also thinks that people in Matabeleland would vote for both parties which are campaigning on the platform of devolution, so a vote for MDC or Zapu is theirs collectively.
The parties, she added, could not come up with a “better” coalition because they did not anticipate elections this month, but August and later.
“We said when we launched the coalition that it could have been better if we were fielding one presidential candidate,” she said.
“But we didn’t believe that elections would be held in July. We certainly didn’t, so the urgency was not there. We understand that any serious coalition must start at a local level and be escalated to the top. So the moment we failed to do that at a lower level we knew it would be a problem at the top and before we knew it we were stuck with 31 July.”
Online Reporter