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Sifelani Tsiko
Agric, Environment & Innovations Editor
The seasonal forecast issued by the 25th Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF 25) this week pointing to a likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall in the 2021 – 2022 cropping season has cheered the region which is prone to droughts.
Prospects of good rains have brought joy to many, with above average rains expected over the bulk of the SADC region.
According to the SADC report, normal to above-normal rainfall are more likely during the three months from October to December this year, the first half of the season, but normal to below normal rainfall is likely in an arc along the Atlantic and into the north of the region.
The area encompassing north-western Angola, most of Democratic Republic of Congo, western and southern Madagascar, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, the western fringes of Namibia and South Africa, and south-western Tanzania and north-eastern Zambia.
Zimbabwe is in the area likely to receive normal to above normal rains in both the first and second halves of the season which normally runs from October through to March.
This is for the second consecutive season that Zimbabwe and much of the region in general are likely to see better rains after most of SADC saw at least adequate rains last summer season.
One of the major drivers of the forecast by regional climate experts is the greater chance of a La Nina weather system in the central Pacific Ocean, a weather event normally associated with wetter conditions in Southern Africa.
A La Nina tends to see cooler conditions in the tropical waters of the eastern Pacific as warmer water is pushed west.
It is the opposite of an El Nino which sees a warm equatorial Pacific current flowing east.
Climate experts further said that La Nina events are also associated with heightened risk of flooding and cyclones, as well as cooler daytime temperatures in this part of the world.
Adequate rains forecast for the coming season will have a positive impact on agriculture, water resources and hydropower generation in most of the region.
But while a wetter season is likely to cheer the region, there are also potential risks that come with a good season.
Countries in the region are likely to battle increased outbreaks of locusts, armoured crickets and the fall armyworm and experts say countries in the region should plan and intensify surveillance of pests to minimise damage to crops.
Locusts can cause serious damage to sorghum, maize and pastures, as they and other pests breed abundantly in wetter conditions with rapid vegetation growth.
Last season, there were locust outbreaks in Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia and Zambia which required the authorities in these countries to take more steps to control pests.
Experts urged member states to plan ahead for emergency locust response and preparedness programmes.
Excessive rains also come with numerous public health risks that include cholera, malaria and others. These must be planned for in addition to pests and diseases that affect our livestock.
Flooding, cyclones and leaching is also likely in this coming season and experts said countries should encourage areas which were vulnerable to put in proper drainage measures, do contouring for ridging to protect crops and assist with drainage and canals.
Strategies should be devised and implemented for managing leaching, which is the loss of valuable fertiliser applications.
Excessively wet conditions due to incessant rains can negatively affect crop growth due to leaching of nutrients, especially nitrogen, from the soil.
Heavy rains could increase chances of waterborne diseases such as malaria and cholera, increased livestock diseases and other public health problems.
Another important measure for farmers to adopt, will be to construct infiltration pits that originally work to capture rain water in a prolonged dry rainy season or erratic rainy season to prolong moisture availability within a cropping area.
These structures will assist in drawing excessive water away and out of the cropping area thus reducing the amount of time this water stands in the field thus reducing leaching rate.
This can significantly work towards redirecting this excessive rain water run-off into existing underground water aquifers.
More cyclones tend to be seen in La Nina years, but the worst to hit Zimbabwe in half a century, Cyclone Idai at the end of the 2018-19 season occurred in an El Nino year.
And the Sadc climate experts warned that member states should not be complacent as the region is likely to experience an average or above-average number of tropical cyclones this season.
Droughts and extreme rainfall have surged in the SADC region and are now occurring at a rate five times higher than in 1980, according to a study by the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC).
Last season, the region experienced some cyclones which brought excessive rains, flooding and damage to infrastructure and assets.
However, the cyclones did not match Tropical Cyclone Idai.
Tropical Cyclone Idai, the worst in more than 50 years, brought heavy rainfall and strong winds to Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe between March 5 and 19 2019, causing severe flooding which led to loss of lives, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of livelihoods and destruction of crops.
Countries were urged to conduct public education and awareness campaigns and set up areas for temporary shelter in case of flooding and cyclones.
Given the risks that come with cyclones and flooding, it is important to promote the people-centred approach to early warning systems to help our communities understand threats and how they can avoid them.
Disasters are largely caused by natural hazards, but they also stem simply from people being ignorant, and in the wrong place without adequate protection.
Information must extend to communities so as to facilitate their adoption of protective actions.
Zimbabwe and most countries in the region need to utilise telecommunication mobile networks and the media to disseminate information coming from our early warning systems to prevent damage and save lives.
Telecommunications can play an important role in using ICTs for disaster risk reduction and management, through the design of national emergency telecommunication plans, setting up early warning and monitoring systems and providing emergency telecommunications equipment when disasters strike.
All this can help warn people about floods and other disasters ahead of time.
It is also important for the regional countries to mobilise resources for disaster risk response on time.
Response action plans and units often lack adequate resources and funds to carry out their work.
Most governments tend to wait for disaster to strike first before any resources are allocated.
Setting budgets aside is key to help disaster response teams to respond quickly and reduce both the severity of the emergency and the number of people affected.
“The season forecast presents an opportunity to put aside resources for the occurrence of extreme events,” said Chandapiwa Sebeela, director of the Botswana Department of Meteorological Services.
Disaster risk preparedness and emergency preparedness plans must be activated at an appropriate time to help people to react and respond in a timely manner and save lives.
When resources and teams are fully mobilised, disaster preparedness can lessen the impact of disasters on vulnerable populations that come with a wetter season coupled with cyclones and other violent storms.
Developing a coordinated plan before the onset of the season can reduce the waste of resources, time and efforts.
Disaster preparedness has the potential to save the maximum number of lives and property during a disaster and it can be helpful to affected populations to return to normalcy as quickly as possible.
What then is key is to plan ahead and mobilise adequate resources before disaster strikes.
Online Reporter