Online Reporter
Nelson Gahadza
Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S economy is poised for stronger growth in the second half of the year, underpinned by easing inflation, exchange rate stability and improving external balances, creating favourable conditions for a rerating of stock markets and renewed private sector investment, FBC Securities has said.
In its Half-Year 2026 Economic and Stock Market outlook report, the brokerage firm projects real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of around 5 percent this year, driven mainly by robust mining production, particularly gold and platinum group metals (PGMs), as well as continued macroeconomic stability.
The report notes that annual inflation slowed to 4,72 percent in June, while the ZiG currency has remained broadly stable at around US$1:ZiG26,80, supported by prudent monetary and fiscal policies.
It also highlights the reduction in the policy interest rate to 30 percent, a widening external surplus and improving foreign currency reserves as key indicators reinforcing confidence in the economy.
“The outlook for the remainder of 2026 is constructive,” FBC Securities said.
The firm expects monthly inflation to remain below one percent for the rest of the year, while forecasting a current account surplus exceeding US$2,5 billion and import cover rising to between 1,7 and two months by year-end.
However, it cautioned that risks remain, including global oil and commodity price volatility, adverse weather conditions and the pace of structural reforms and economic formalisation.
For businesses, FBC Securities said the current macroeconomic environment presents an opportunity to accelerate capital investment.
It said lower borrowing costs, supported by the 30 percent policy rate and the 15 percent Treasury Funding Facility, would encourage companies to expand productive capacity.
FBC Securities urged exporters to strengthen hard currency reserves, invest in beneficiation and accelerate formalisation initiatives to enhance competitiveness.
Equity investors are expected to benefit from lower discount rates and improving corporate earnings, which could support a broader re-rating of listed companies.
FBC Securities recommends increased exposure to export-oriented mining and agriculture firms, banks positioned to benefit from stronger credit growth and consumer stocks expected to gain from recovering household incomes.
It also identified the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) as an attractive destination for investors seeking US dollar-denominated returns and hard currency portfolio diversification.
Money market investors are also expected to enjoy improving real returns as inflation moderates.
The report points to the introduction of ZiG Domestic Treasury Discount Fund (ZiGDTDF) bills, particularly the 30-day and 90-day tenors, as offering attractive investment opportunities, although it warns that further monetary policy easing could limit future yields.
FBC Securities also projects good prospects for the property market, noting that currency stability is restoring confidence in long-term real estate investments, particularly industrial and logistics developments linked to mining and export activities.
