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Obert Chifamba, Agri-Insight
AS the country stands on the precipice of a fresh agricultural cycle dwarfed by the looming possibility of a La Niña weather phenomenon, the palpable unease among citizens is undeniable.
And the need for strategic preparations to mitigate potential challenges and minimise opportunities that may accompany the La Niña occurrence has never been more pressing.
The good thing is that weather experts made their findings public way ahead of the new season and logically this should influence the nature of preparations farmers do as they make themselves ready for any eventuality.
That La Niña is capable of strongly influencing rainfall and weather patterns in various regions of the world and has been responsible for catastrophic droughts and floods, which have severely threatened agricultural production and food security, and caused major economic losses is not a secret given that this is not the first time it is visiting us.
But the day and time it will land in Zimbabwe still remain nature’s closely guarded secret.
For now, what we know is that climate scientists have issued a forecast indicating that there was an 85 percent chance for last season’s El Nino weather to transition to neutral conditions between April and June, and a 60 percent chance of La Niña developing by June to August.
And with just a day before the month of August starts, those who have been following the weather bulletins can easily be forgiven for staying preoccupied with the matter with each day that comes.
One obvious fact for now is that preparations for the 2024/25 cropping are underway in earnest across most parts of the country.
The preparatory stage is that crucial phase on the farming calendar when a farmer either gets it right or wrong.
This is the time when the foundation for either a disastrous or meaningful season is laid.
It will take the organised farmer who does not do preparations randomly, but goes to the drawing board at the end of every season to plan the next outing to come up with the right planning for this coming season.
This means that the farmer must come up with a budget for all planned activities and make sure activities begin as soon as produce is marketed or even earlier.
My offering will explore the need for farmers to take their preparations seriously given that the approaching season will be characterised by a highly unpredictable weather phenomenon that can sway results in any direction.
Their preparations must take into account the possibility of both excessive rains or very little rains, which will require them to choose their crop options with a lot of discretion and prepare their land accordingly.
It is obvious that farmers producing crops under the Government-initiated Pfumvudza/Intwasa are currently busy digging holes or planting stations that will help trap moisture in the event of a drought.
Those farmers will also need to gather organic manure to mix with the soil to fill up the holes. That done, they must also gather mulching material to cover the holes after planting in a move that helps the soil retain moisture.
This season the Government will be providing inputs for three plots on which farmers are expected to grow crops that are suitable for the different agro-ecological regions in which they are situated. The Government has since identified cereals (maize, millet, sorghum, rapoko and many others), oilseeds (sunflower) and proteins (sugar beans, groundnuts, cow peas) as critical contributors to both household and national food and nutrition security.
The unpredictable nature of La Niñaweather also makes it critical for farmers to complete their preparations at the earliest possible because rains may even come earlier than usual, if predictions by weather scientists are anything to go by.
This implies that the season would have started way ahead of the expected time and rains may also depart before the normal time associated with the ending of seasons in this part of the globe.
La Niña episodes usually last nine to 12 months, but may last for years. The frequency of multi-year La Niña’s has risen in the past several decades, and the longer duration increases risks from weather extremes.
The previous one, which lasted from 2020-2023, had devastating consequences for several regions of the world. Some regional trends that can be associated with La Niña include drier than usual conditions for countries like Ethiopia, Somalia, north-western and eastern Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, southern and south-eastern United States of America, southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina and southern Bolivia, which potentially leads to drought and crop failures.
Other regions may have wetter than usual conditions, for instance, in eastern South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, northern and eastern Australia, southeast Asia, India, northern Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela, with potential for flooding.
In other words, La Niña can be associated with above-average summer rainfall especially in eastern South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Botswana.
In terms of agricultural productivity, South Africa is more likely to record higher yields of maize, sorghum and wheat with Zimbabwe experiencing increased maize and soya bean yields.
However, in all these scenarios, the farmer can also mitigate the impact of either outcome – drought or excess rains and salvage some yields. This is only possible if the farmer has prepared adequately for the season paying close attention to the characteristics of the weather conditions tipped to dominate that season.
It is also important for input providers like the Government to be proactive and start moving the inputs to distributions points close to the farmers.
There are chances the season might start earlier than normal, which might make some places difficult to access once it rains. Such places need to be prioritised when movement of inputs to access points begins so that farmers will readily access them when planting begins.
One thing worth-noting is that Government has already indicated that priority will be given to those that complete their land preparations early.
This should be enough to spur people into action and complete their preparations in time. But as the preparations go, farmers must also take the initiative to secure other inputs for separate plots other than those sponsored by Government to broaden their incomes and boost food security at the same time.
They must not contend with producing crops on the plots Government is supporting only but extend hectarage by adding more crop choices to ensure they spread risk and in the event of a bad season they can still net something decent.
I hope the temptation to abuse inputs will not rear its ugly head at a time like this when we the country is going through a swim-or-die situation, which requires everyone to play ball. Food security is an issue that requires citizens to work together driven by the desire to achieve enough to sustain livelihoods.
Online Reporter