Online Reporter
Nelson Gahadza
Strong gold prices are expected to anchor revenue growth for Padenga Holdings Limited in 2026, sustained by price momentum and improving production, market watchers say.
IH Securities, in its latest earnings report on the group’s full-year results to December 31, 2025, said gold price tailwinds are the defining feature of Padenga’s performance and would continue to underpin earnings.
“We forecast the group’s revenue to rise sharply to US$426,57 million in FY26, supported primarily by the mining segment, which has become the dominant earnings driver following a downturn in the agribusiness division,” IH said.
Padenga revenue rose 25,8 percent to US$265,8 million in 2025, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumped 72 percent to US$113 million, reflecting strong leverage to rising bullion prices.
According to IH, the group recorded a 44 percent surge in the average realised gold price to US$3,448 per ounce in FY25, up from US$2 386 in the prior year, driving a 30 percent increase in gold revenue to US$251,1 million despite largely flat production volumes of 84,642 ounces.
“The gold price momentum was the defining feature of FY2025,” IH Securities said, noting that margins expanded significantly as the cash margin more than doubled year-on-year to US$1 389 per ounce.
The brokerage added that the favourable pricing environment remains structurally supportive, despite some volatility in early 2026.
Gold prices briefly corrected before rebounding strongly, with the year-to-date average of US$4,850 per ounce sitting 46 percent above FY25 levels.
“This outlook, combined with anticipated production growth, positions Padenga for another strong earnings cycle,” reads part of the earnings review.
IH Securities said the mining unit, Dallaglio Investments, is targeting gold output of between 90,000 and 95,000 ounces in FY26, driven by a recovery at Pickstone Mine, steady performance at Eureka Mine and increasing contributions from the Cordillera Joint Venture.
It said Pickstone is expected to rebound following a temporary decline linked to its transition from open-pit to underground operations, while Eureka continues to benefit from sustained capital investment and operational upgrades aimed at improving throughput and recovery rates.
The Cordillera Joint Venture, which has evolved into a custom milling centre, is also seen as an emerging earnings contributor.
“On that basis, Padenga’s share price is expected to remain positively correlated with gold prices going forward, meaning the combination of volume recovery and the prevailing price tailwind positions FY26 as another strong earnings delivery year,” IH Securities said.
However, IH cautioned that cost pressures remain a key variable, particularly from elevated waste stripping at Eureka, higher royalties and rising global fuel prices.
The brokerage added that Zimbabwe’s introduction of a 10 percent royalty on gold prices above US$5 000 per ounce could also weigh on margins.
“Despite these headwinds, Padenga’s strong cash generation and ongoing investments in solar power are expected to partially offset cost increases while improving operational efficiency.”
In the year under review, the crocodile farming unit recorded a 22 percent decline in revenue to US$14,8 million and swung to a loss, weighed down by lower volumes and non-cash write-downs, further reinforcing the group’s pivot toward mining.
