Online Reporter
Michael Tome, Business Reporter
MOST business executives expect improved operating conditions next year, buoyed by macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms and sector-specific recovery prospects, according to the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) 2025 Annual State of Industry and Commerce Survey.
The business confidence index (BCI) was positive across all major sectors, except transport and storage.
Agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction and energy emerged as top drivers of the overall rebound in sentiment.
The agriculture, hunting, fishing and forestry sectors recorded the highest confidence levels, with a BCI of 61,3, reflecting overwhelming positive expectations for 2026.
ZNCC attributes this to a favourable 2024/2025 farming season, marked by improved rainfall patterns, which strengthened balance sheets for many agricultural enterprises.
Executives in the sector project an even stronger 2025/2026 season, citing forecasts of good rains and continued stability in the input market.
Mining and quarrying firms posted a BCI of 12,1, signalling cautious optimism, supported by stable commodity prices and improvements in foreign exchange.
Manufacturing and construction followed with a combined BCI of 7,1, while electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply stood at 5,4, showing moderate confidence, driven by improved electricity availability and tariff stability.
One of the most significant turnarounds came from the wholesale and retail trade sector.
After posting the lowest BCI across all sectors in 2024, at -64,6, sentiment rebounded sharply to 1,3 in the 2025 survey.
Executives in the sector believe this shift is largely caused by economic stability, particularly the stabilisation of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency, which has improved pricing predictability and restored consumer confidence.
The survey highlights that formal retailers, who bore the brunt of exchange-rate volatility last year, now anticipate better business conditions in 2026.
A breakdown of the index by enterprise size shows large firms — those employing more than 100 people — experienced the most dramatic shift in sentiment.
In 2024, large enterprises had a highly pessimistic BCI of -47,5, reflecting severe exposure to monetary instability and exchange-rate swings.
However, the stabilisation measures introduced in late 2024 and early 2025 have significantly improved their outlook, lifting their BCI to 1,7.
Medium-sized firms recorded a marginal improvement from 13,60 to 14,10, while small firms saw their BCI decline from 38,10 to 6,29, though still remaining in positive territory.
The overall trend, according to the ZNCC, shows that both small and large firms expect 2026 to be better than 2025, largely due to restored exchange-rate predictability and easing inflationary pressures.
Presenting findings of the survey, economist Dr Moses Chundu said survey participants from across sectors highlighted macroeconomic stability, stable exchange rates and recent regulatory fee reforms were the main drivers of confidence.
“Respondents from different sectors generally cited macroeconomic stability, in particular stable exchange rates and the current regulatory fees reforms by the Government, as main factors weighing up their confidence. Businesses believe implementation of these reforms across all sectors is key to building business confidence,” said Dr Chundu.
The ZNCC survey suggests that if the current stability persists, 2026 could see stronger industrial recovery, improved investment appetite and more robust employment creation across the economy.
Respondents from across sectors, Dr Chundu said, consistently pointed to stable exchange rates, declining inflation and ongoing regulatory fee reforms as the main factors underpinning improved business confidence.
ZNCC president Mr Christopher Mugaga, however, urged the Government to maintain policy consistency and accelerate implementation of reforms in licensing, taxation and regulatory fees, which he said were fundamental to building confidence in 2026 and beyond.
“Zimbabwe’s industrial revival cannot be achieved solely through policy statements.
“It requires alignment of incentives, investment in productive capacity, strengthening of value chain linkages and coherent coordination across institutions,” said Mr Mugaga.
“It requires predictable and transparent currency systems. It requires financing models that support long-term capital formation rather than short-term speculation. It requires stable and reliable energy to support production schedules.
“It requires a tax and regulatory environment that encourages formalisation, competitiveness and innovation. These are structural reforms that must be approached not with urgency alone, but with coherence and partnership.”
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Deputy Governor Dr Innocent Matshe said the central bank’s current monetary policy will keep the exchange rate and macro-stability intact while supporting economic growth.
The ZiG’s stability, he said, has restored much-needed predictability for business planning and forecasting.
“The monetary policy measures are expected to anchor inflation and exchange rate expectations and support without compromising the envisaged economic growth prospects of 6,6 percent in 2025,” he said.
