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The Sharp Shooter Vukani Madoda —
In ancient China dogs, by tradition, were not permitted within the walls of cities. Consequently, stray dogs roamed the areas outside the city walls and lived off the rubbish thrown out by inhabitants. Criminals and social outcasts were often expelled from cities and were sent to live among the rubbish — and the dogs.
Such people were said to have “gone to the dogs”, both literally in that this was where they were now to be found, and metaphorically in the sense that their lives had taken a distinct turn for the worse. Norton, by this very illustration, has indeed gone to the dogs after the winner of the recent by-election, the maverick Temba Mliswa who ran as an independent candidate (whatever that means) romped to a pyrrhic victory on the basis of what you would call 8 000 or so spoilt ballot papers.
Only two political parties contested the Norton constituency by-election. Only two. One calls itself the NCA and the other was Zimbabwe’s only revolutionary ruling party. The third contestant was, and still is, partyless; and he won a whole constituency to himself so that he can watch it depreciate from what it currently is to levels of underdevelopment it could never have imagined.
Nevertheless, the whole farce about the by-election was that you would not say that Norton voted for Mliswa but rather that Norton simply did not vote for Zanu-PF. In 2013, four parties contested the elections and Zanu-PF had 10 592 votes, Mavambo 129, MDC-T 9 360 and the other MDC 894.
In the by-election, only one party that contested in the 2013 elections fielded a candidate, effectively meaning that at least 10 592 voters knew which party to vote for while approximately 10 383 voters were rendered partyless by virtue of their own parties not contesting the by-election. It would not have been surprising to find that even if Mliswa had not contested, the NCA’s David Chingodzo would have won it.
He would have won it not because anyone in Norton knows the manifesto of NCA but simply because 8 927 voters in Norton do not feel obliged to vote for Zanu-PF because they have always traditionally voted against it. Mliswa’s 8 927 votes against Ronald Chindedza’s 6 192 meant that at least 4 400 Zanu-PF 2013 voters did not come out.
For one reason or another, these Zanu-PF voters simply did not vote. Mliswa’s votes came from partyless voters who never vote for anything but always vote against something, and they are clinical at it. All the opposition seats in Parliament are occupied by people from constituencies that only know they do not want Zanu-PF but as to what they actually want, they remain unsure.
It is these unsure voters that Zanu-PF should be wary about because they will vote for anything that is contesting against Zanu-PF. Anything and anyone – even Temba Mliswa. The 4 400 voters know they are Zanu-PF and vote for Zanu PF but in this case the factionalist and successionist squabbles that are tearing into the fabric of the ruling party immobilised these voters.
The squabbles have caused great uncertainty and anxiety within the ruling party and this has rendered its voters edgy and cagey as they are unclear as to what end continuously voting for Zanu-PF implies. The only comfort that Zanu-PF may derive from the apathy of the 4 400 voters is that they did not vote for Temba Mliswa.
If they had voted for Mliswa, he would have polled upwards of 13 000 votes but that did not happen. They knew better. They know he stands for nothing. What does a so-called independent candidate stand for anyway? It is, therefore, incumbent upon the ruling party to find the lost sheep of Norton in 2018.
We have established that at least 4 400 Zanu-PF sheep are lost in Norton. They are not partyless, they are just leaderless and factionless and if they are not compelled to vote you end up with the Mliswa’s of this world being sworn into Parliament to represent no one. The fact that the noise-makers of MDC-T and ZimPF feared contesting the Norton by-election is another source of comfort for Zanu-PF.
And Norton is not Zimbabwe and Zimbabwe is not Norton. In 2018, there will be 210 seats up for grabs in the House of Assembly and I do not see 210 independent candidates fighting it out in these constituencies. MDC-T will want a piece of the pie and so will ZimPF. These two opposition parties will battle it out with Zanu-PF and by then Zanu PF will be ready for them.
The mantra of independent candidates will have long fizzled out. Few people waste their votes on independent candidates because independent candidates have never formed governments. We all know there will be no coalition of any sort in that political circus called Nera. The dogs that celebrated the Norton pyrrhic victory will understand that they drank from the poisoned chalice the day they voted for Mliswa.
While Zanu-PF may at present appear defeated, the real disillusionment for Norton and other constituencies will strike like blinding light come 2018. Indeed, there have been infinite lessons to be drawn from the Norton by-elections for the ruling party. For instance, as President Mugabe pointed out, you simply do not impose a common thief on the people. And he is right.
Who is Ronald Chindedza anyway? Now we know he is a common thief and now we know him for begetting the greatest electoral sham for Zanu-PF through losing a by-election to an independent candidate of all contestants. Perhaps the most disturbing revelation about the Mliswa victory was the fact that certain elements within the ruling party were campaigning for him and when he won they openly joined in the Mliswa victory celebrations.
There has never been a deadlier enemy for Zanu-PF than the enemy within. The time has now come for Zanu-PF to be brutal and expose that those who are not with them are invariably against them. The next by-election is around the corner; Norton has gone to the dogs; it is time to focus on the future.
Dubulaizitha!
Online Reporter