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The report looks at the likely impacts of present-day 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and South East Asia.
It shows that climate risks among the most vulnerable in Africa south of the Sahara will greatly multiply in the next three decades, with deeper crippling impacts on agriculture and food security.
The latest research builds on another World Bank report published late last year, which concluded that, without strong action, the world would warm by 4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
The report finds many significant climate and development impacts are already being felt in some regions.
In other cases, multiple threats of increasing extreme heat waves, rising sea levels, more severe storms, droughts and floods are expected to have severe negative implications for the poorest communities.
It also reaffirms the 2012 assessment of the International Energy Agency that in the absence of further mitigation action there is a 40 percent chance of warming exceeding 4°C by 2100 and a 10 percent chance of it exceeding 5°C in the same period.
Sub-Saharan food security threat
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank found food security will be the overarching challenge, with dangers from droughts, flooding, and shifts in rainfall.
Between 1,5°C to 2°C warming, drought and aridity, will contribute to farmers losing 40-80 percent of cropland conducive to growing maize, millet, and sorghum by the 2030s-2040s, it said.
In a 4°C warmer world, around the 2080s, annual precipitation may decrease by up to 30 percent in Southern Africa, while East Africa will see more rainfall, according to multiple studies.
Ecosystem changes to pastoral lands, such as a shift from grass to woodland savannas as levels of carbon dioxide increase, could reduce grazing pastures for cattle.
It warns that climate-related extreme events could push households below the poverty trap threshold and adversely affect food security.
Without adaptation, damage costs arising from sea-level rise is projected between US$2,8 billion to US$3,3 billion per year under the worst case scenario.
Mozambique and Guinea Bissau are expected to be affected the most, with a loss of over 0,15 percent of their national GDPs.
The report says up to 18 million people would be flooded or displaced each year by 2100 if sea levels rose by 126cm and half that figure without increase.
Mozambique and Nigeria will be hardest hit, with five and three million people flooded respectively.
If the sub-Saharan population grows to around 1,9 billion in 90 years as estimated, the availability of water will decline by at least 10 percent per capita.
For Southern and West Africa, water in rivers, streams and lakes, etc, will fall by up to 50 percent.
Water scarcity will worsen in countries such as Zimbabwe, South Africa, Sudan, DRC and Madagascar.
In sub-Saharan Africa, 97 percent of total crop land is rainfed.
Climate change will affect agriculture by reducing the area suitable for agriculture, altering the growing season length, and reducing the yield potential.
With the current warming of 0,8 degrees Celsius, Africa has already seen declines in per capita agricultural output in recent decades, especially for staples such as maize, rice, soyabeans and cassava.
By 2050, maize output will decline 22 percent, sorghum and millet 17 percent each, groundnut 18 percent and cassava 8 percent.
For this reason and others, the World Bank report says per capita cereal production is projected to be nearly 10 percent lower in 2050 than in 2000.
When food trade is taken into account, the net effect would be a reduction in food availability per capita by at least 15 percent.
With changing climates, the number of malnourished children will rise by 10 million to 52 million in 40 years.
The risk of disease such as malaria, cholera, Rift Valley fever and dengue fever will most likely double.
“This second scientific analysis gives us a more detailed look at how the negative impacts of climate change already in motion could create devastating conditions especially for those least able to adapt.
“The poorest could increasingly be hit the hardest,” said World Bank president Mr Jim Yong Kim.
Aggressive action needed
The findings from this new World Bank report only reinforce the greater need for aggressive global action to drastically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, the major cause of climate change.
The report shows signs of a world rapidly becoming despondent and yet reluctant to commit fully to the cause of a better earth.
“Turn down the Heat” also calls for immediate steps to help countries adapt to the risks already locked in at current levels of 0,8°C warming.
It also emphasised that the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided with ambitious global action to drastically reduce emissions, including through innovative ways to improve energy efficiency and the performance of renewable energies.
Already, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere recently reached dangerous levels, breaking the 400 parts per million (ppm) mark.
The upper safe limit for atmospheric carbon concentrations is 350ppm.
God is faithful.
Online Reporter