Online Reporter
Tawanda Musarurwa-CHECK POINT DESK
POWERED by a year of exceptional performance that saw gold prices breach US$5 000 per ounce, Zimbabwe is approaching a US$10 billion export landmark.
But the composition of these gains tells a deeper story: Minerals now represent 79,4 percent of the export basket, underscoring the country’s heavy commodity dependence.
In Kadoma, Mashonaland West, where the country’s gold economy pulses through informal networks of traders and small-scale miners, the boom is tangible; and so is the uneasiness that often shadows commodity-driven surges.
Gold trader Ms Chipo Ncube (not her real name) says elevated prices have lifted buying volumes and injected liquidity across the artisanal supply chain.
But, even at these lofty levels, the memory of past swings tempers optimism.
“You can earn a lot one month and prices drop the next,” she says.
For operators without hedging tools or deep capital reserves, today’s windfall can quickly turn into tomorrow’s squeeze — a microcosm of the volatility underpinning the country’s export surge.
At first glance, the numbers tell a success story.
Shipments rose from US$7,43 billion in 2024 to US$9,71 billion last year, a 30 percent jump.
The trade deficit shrank by 82 percent to US$404 million, while gold exports climbed from US$2,5 billion to US$4,6 billion.
But one figure explains more than all the others combined: 79,4 percent.
That is the share of exports accounted for by minerals and alloys, according to Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) figures.
In effect, nearly four out of every five export dollars Zimbabwe earns come from minerals; all other sectors combined account for just over one-fifth.
By the definition used by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), a country is commodity-dependent when primary commodities exceed 60 percent of exports.
Zimbabwe exceeds that threshold by a wide margin.
Globally, 95 of 143 developing economies are commodity-dependent, and in Africa, the figure rises to 83 percent, according to UNCTAD’s State of Commodity Dependence (2025) report.
Countries above the 70 percent range tend to exhibit the highest volatility in growth and trade outcomes — placing Zimbabwe firmly in the high-risk tier.
The risks are well established. Research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that commodity-exporting economies experience significantly higher output volatility than diversified ones, because export earnings are tied to global price cycles rather than domestic productivity.
IMF studies find that terms-of-trade shocks account for a large share of gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations in low-income commodity exporters, transmitting directly into fiscal balances, exchange rates and investment cycles.
Zimbabwe’s recent surge fits that pattern.
The 84 percent increase in gold export earnings between 2024 and 2025 coincided with elevated global prices driven by financial uncertainty and strong central bank demand.
Gold, unlike manufactured exports, is globally priced and tends to rise with uncertainty and fall as conditions stabilise.
That sensitivity is now being reinforced by geopolitics.
Tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have injected fresh uncertainty into global markets — historically a trigger for safe-haven flows into gold.
Such episodes can extend booms, but rarely stabilise them.
Past cycles — from the oil shocks of the 1970s to the commodity supercycle of the 2000s — suggest geopolitics amplifies volatility rather than resolve it.
The arithmetic is stark.
At 2025 levels, a 20 percent decline in gold prices — holding volumes constant — would imply a loss of roughly US$900 million in export earnings.
“In an economy where minerals dominate foreign exchange inflows, such shifts do not remain confined to one sector; they ripple through the entire macroeconomic system,” said economist Mr Tinashe Mukuni.
“The transmission mechanism is well established. Commodity dependence exposes economies to price shocks; price shocks affect export revenues and foreign exchange inflows; those flows influence exchange rates, fiscal balances and investment.”
Short-term gains
UNCTAD finds that this chain results in greater macroeconomic instability and slower long-term development in commodity-dependent economies.
Across Africa, the relationship is measurable.
An IMF multi-country analysis — notably the working paper “Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth” — finds a statistically significant negative relationship between commodity price volatility and long-term economic growth, with instability dampening investment and capital formation.
The World Bank, analysing the aftermath of the 2014-2016 commodity price collapse in its Africa’s Pulse series, similarly observed that resource-dependent African economies suffered sharper slowdowns than more diversified peers.
The higher the dependence, the harder the landing.
Zimbabwe’s export structure mirrors that of several mineral-rich economies, including Botswana and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where minerals account for around 80 percent or more of exports.
These economies have posted strong growth during booms, only to face abrupt adjustments when prices weaken.
The problem is not resources, but concentration. Zimbabwe’s own data illustrates the imbalance.
According to ZimStat’s 2025 Economic Census, mining contributes about 13 percent of GDP, while manufacturing contributes 15,3 percent — however, mining overwhelmingly dominates export earnings.
This divergence reflects what economists describe as an “enclave” structure: a capital-intensive export sector operating alongside a largely informal domestic economy.
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Of more than 200 000 establishments recorded in the census, 76,1 percent are informal.
The consequences extend into finance.
IMF research into the “financial resource curse” finds that economies heavily reliant on commodities often develop shallower financial systems, as volatile export revenues translate into unstable government income and unpredictable investment cycles.
Exchange rates, fiscal balances and credit conditions tend to move in tandem with commodity prices.
Zimbabwe’s narrowing trade deficit offers both opportunity and constraint.
The improvement — from over US$2 billion to US$404 million — has been driven largely by mineral exports.
At the same time, imports of machinery and equipment reached US$1,85 billion, while raw materials imports rose to US$1,37 billion, suggesting export earnings are being channelled into productive investment.
The World Bank has long argued that commodity booms can serve as a platform for structural transformation, but only if the proceeds are invested in expanding productive capacity beyond extraction.
There are tentative signs of such a shift.
In the platinum sector, exports are moving from raw concentrate towards higher-value matte, with the latter rising by 71 percent in value to US$1,5 billion, Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) data shows.
With regard to lithium, the Government has taken a more explicit policy turn, recently banning the export of raw ore and signalling plans to develop domestic refining capacity.
Policy analysis and research think tank Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Institute (ZEPARI) suggests “State facilitation in mineral beneficiation through incentives and disincentives, such as imposition of judicious export taxes if the next value addition step is commercially viable”.
The case is reinforced globally. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa argues that exporting raw materials transfers jobs, technology and value abroad, while leaving producers exposed to price swings.
In minerals such as lithium, the gap between raw ore and processed battery-grade chemicals can be substantial, with downstream processing capturing multiples of the value per tonne.
UNCTAD finds that economies with more diversified export baskets tend to achieve higher and more stable growth, while commodity-dependent countries remain locked in low-value production cycles.
Zimbabwe’s position is clear. Its export boom is real, supported by favourable prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Mining capacity utilisation — between 45,8 percent and 60,9 percent — suggests room for further expansion.
The MMCZ has set a US$3,5 billion revenue target for 2026.
But expansion alone will not alter the structure.
At 79,4 percent, mineral dependence is not just a feature of the economy; it is its defining characteristic.
For traders like Ms Ncube in Kadoma, the stakes are immediate: Today’s gains depend on tomorrow’s prices.
At the national level, the distinction is the same.
Commodity booms can deliver growth; they rarely guarantee transformation.
Zimbabwe’s recent policy moves suggest an awareness of that gap. Whether they mark a turning point will depend on scale and consistency.
The data points in one direction: Countries that remain at the extraction stage move with the cycle; those that climb the value chain begin to shape it.
Ultimately, the path forward is less about what Zimbabwe extracts, and more about what it builds from it.
“Zimbabwe’s comparative advantage arising from its natural endowment with mineral resources needs to be deliberately translated into a competitive advantage, through implementation of a policy that enables beneficiation and value addition of the minerals,” says ZEPARI.
