Zimbabwe population to grow by 6 million in 20 years

ZIMBABWE’S population is projected to grow from 15.2 million in 2022 to 21.2 million in 2042, the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) has said.

This represents a higher average annual population growth rate of 1.8 percent, driven by steadily rising life expectancy. As the population continues to expand, Zimbabwe can expect significant changes in its demographic landscape over the next two decades, including shifts in age distribution, urbanization, and migration patterns.

This growth will also have important implications for the country’s economy, infrastructure, and resource allocation, making it essential to plan and prepare for the needs of a growing population.

ZimStat acting director-general Mr Aluwisio Mukavhi said the 2022 Population and Housing Census seeks to provide policymakers, planners, decision-makers, and development partners with reliable data on population dynamics in the two decades 2022-2042.

“Zimbabwe’s population is projected to grow from 15, 2 million in 2022 to 21,2million in 2042 in the medium scenario. This gives a higher average annual population growth rate of 1,8 percent. This is due to steadily rising life expectancy at birth, expanding educational levels, urbanisation, and improved public health systems,” said Mr Mukavhi.

He added that Zimbabwe’s population has doubled in four decades, from 7.5 million in 1982 to 15.2 million in 2022, highlighting significant demographic changes. Specifically, fertility has steadily declined since 1982, while mortality in childhood has remained relatively stable for most of the period.

“Under-five mortality has been declining in Zimbabwe during the past four decades while life expectancy at birth has steadily been increasing since 1982 until about 1987 when it reached a peak of 61 years after which it gradually declined to a low of 43 years in 2002 before steadily increasing after that to a peak of 64 years in 2022.”

Mr Mukavhi further outlined that the benchmark data for the projections is the 2022 Population and Housing Census, which provides the foundation for estimating the components of population change, including fertility, mortality, and migration. These components are crucial for understanding the levels and trends of population growth and development.

“The projections assume that Zimbabwe’s total fertility rate will decrease from 3,7 children per woman in 2022 to 3,2 in 2042, partly a result of an increase in contraceptive prevalence rate and girl-child school attendance life expectancy at birth will increase from 61,3 to 69,1 for males and from 68,2 to 78,2 for females due to several coordinated socio-economic and health care interventions, involving scaling up of early infant diagnosis net international migration was assumed a constant 70,000 as medium variant throughout the projection period, ” he said.

He also acknowledged that population projections are computed without absolute certainty, and therefore, it is essential to adopt different scenarios – high, principal, and low – representing respective population component assumptions. This approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of potential population growth trajectories and their implications for future planning and development.

“Key determinants of population change will continue to be mortality and fertility levels, with international migration playing a more significant role,” said Mr Mukavhi.

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