Online Reporter
Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
Senior Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S economic growth streak faces a significant setback if the projected Super El Niño weather phenomenon materialises, with the International Monetary Fund warning that the shock could halve the 2027 forecast growth.
The IMF has projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5 percent for Zimbabwe this year and sees the expansion moderating to 4,2 percent over the medium term, with agriculture and mining providing key support.
However, the global lender says a stronger-than-expected 2026/27 El Niño event could cut the 2027 growth projection by half, while simultaneously reducing Government revenues and increasing spending pressures.
The warning comes after agriculture drove much of Zimbabwe’s strong economic rebound in 2025 following the devastating 2024 drought, caused by another strong El Niño.
Zimbabwe’s real GDP grew by 8,3 percent last year, compared to 1,7 percent in 2024, with the recovery underpinned by improved agricultural production, strong mining activity and elevated gold prices.
The fund said agriculture remains particularly important to Zimbabwe’s economic outlook because a renewed drought would affect not only food production, but also household incomes, trade, fiscal revenues and demand across related sectors.
“Agriculture remains at the centre of Zimbabwe’s development story. A good season not only improves food security but stimulates activity throughout the economy, from transport and logistics to agro-processing and retail trade,” agronomist Ms Pamela Macheka said.
The IMF said the potential El Niño-induced drought shock could lower agricultural output and hydropower generation, worsen food insecurity, increase import requirements and add pressure to both the fiscal and external positions.
It also warned that the risk comes alongside other external threats, including an escalation of the Middle East conflict, which could keep global energy and fertiliser prices elevated, disrupt shipping and weaken external demand.
The fund’s assessment highlights the importance of preparing for the agricultural shock before it materialises.
It estimates that the Government should build a fiscal buffer of at least US$275 million from stronger-than-expected 2026 revenues to respond quickly to food-security needs without accumulating arrears or cutting priority social spending.
The IMF said the authorities should save additional revenues while keeping expenditure within the original 2026 Budget ceiling. The proposed buffer would also provide room for grain purchases for the strategic reserve if food prices and availability come under pressure.
Economic analyst Namatai Maeresera said the warning underscored the need to reduce Zimbabwe’s exposure to rainfall-dependent production.
“Climate shocks have become an economic risk, not just an agricultural risk. If production falls sharply, the impact quickly spreads through food prices, imports, household incomes, transport and Government finances,” Mr Maeresera said.
The IMF’s concerns are significant because agriculture has been central to the recent recovery. The Fund noted that growth momentum continued into 2026, supported by stronger-than-expected agricultural and mining activity.
Tobacco, Zimbabwe’s main cash crop, was also experiencing a bumper season despite softer prices.
A repeat of the 2024 drought could therefore undermine the growth momentum while forcing the country to increase food imports at a time when fiscal space remains constrained.
Zimbabwe’s public finances remain under pressure, with the IMF saying the end of the partial moratorium on domestic debt service and continued financing constraints would limit fiscal space in 2027 and beyond.
The fund has consequently urged greater investment in irrigation, drought preparedness and climate resilience, alongside measures to protect vulnerable households.
The IMF said stronger buffers are therefore essential, warning that the potential El Niño event in late 2026 and early 2027 represents one of the key downside risks to the economy.
