Online Reporter
Gibson Nyikadzino
Zimpapers Politics Hub
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) this year has three member countries holding general elections; Malawi on September 16, Seychelles on September 27 and Tanzania on October 28.
These elections suggest an important milestone in the region’s democratic journey and capacity of member states to improve their national institutions, governance structures and building a national consensus on development issues.
While all elections matter, for Malawi, these elections are more than a political event based on the current changes in the economy, the impact of climate change, youth unemployment, rising levels of poverty, among others.
According to the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), 7,200,905 people are registered to vote in the elections, up from 6,859,570 in 2020, representing 65,7 percent of the current total.
Of the eight presidential candidates, the competition is stiff among three frontrunners; former presidents Professor Arthur Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Dr Joyce Banda of the People’s Party (PP); and incumbent Dr Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). It is a competition of the former presidents.
Unfulfilled political promises
So far, there is no projected outright winner of the presidential election. 70-year-old Dr Chakwera is seeking for another term to fulfil what “he started”. He has been criticised for failure to deal adequately with the rising cost of living, the depreciation of the Malawian kwacha and skyrocketing inflation. In his campaigns so far, Dr Chakwera has vowed to lead a vigorous corruption crack down to accelerate economic growth.
One of Dr Chakwera’s opponents, 75-year-old Dr Banda, who was Malawi’s president from 2012 to 2014, recently told her supporters that she had already secured 10 000 jobs abroad for Malawian nationals.
Part of her promises include giving prioritising free secondary education, maternal health services, affordable farm input loans and job creation. Riding on her previous years in government, Dr Banda is insisting that she knows how to deliver results given her previous dance with government systems.
For 85-year-old Prof Mutharika, Malawi’s fifth president from 2014 to 2020, his message is only anchored on what he has described as “economic revival”.
Alliances and numbers
Malawi had a first round of election in May 2019 whose outcome Dr Chakwera successfully challenged in court. The court declared a rerun in June 2020.
In the 2019 elections, Prof Mutharika had been declared winner after getting 1,9 million votes; followed by Dr Chakwera who had nearly 1,5 million votes and Dr Banda had at least 1,1 million votes.
Ahead of the runoff, Dr Banda withdrew her presidential candidature and threw her weight behind Dr Chakwera, who was the main opposition candidate against then incumbent Prof Mutharika.
Dr Chakwera won the runoff elections pledging to end corruption in government, a pledge his adversaries are saying he has failed to uphold, which has pushed Dr Banda to challenge her former political ally. He had 2,604,043 million votes or 59,34 percent of the vote against Prof Mutharika’s 1 751 877 votes or 39,92 percent.
A third runoff candidate Peter Kuwani garnered 32 456 votes or 0,7 percent of total votes.
This time it is difficult to tell whether the three frontrunners are going to cut political deals or alliances to ventilate their political careers. Both Prof Mutharika and Dr Chakwera are pinning their hopes that the electorate will not punish them as one-term presidents. Dr Banda is praying to get a full term as president.
However, if there is one who may likely be the favoured candidate based on the current landscape, the contest can be between Prof Mutharika and Dr Banda, against the incumbent. Their prospects of winning are high, but not easy, because during their terms, they also made promises they could not keep.
If they are lucky, it will be so because they have both exploited the disgruntlement across Malawi’s age groups and voters. The two are even reported to be reaching out to MCP members to sway their allegiance.
Besides alliances, the numbers in relation to the voter registration exercise in various regions in Malawi are also seen to be key in this election. The Central Region leads with 3 488 511 voters, followed by the Southern and Eastern Regions with 2 817 308 combined, and the Northern Region with 895,086.
These numbers will probably affect how political parties and candidates run their campaigns in this close election. Experts say that the large number of voters in the Central Region could have a big effect on the presidential election, while the smaller number of voters in the North could make the race for each vote very close.
Malawi’s election outcomes can affect regional stability and economic integration by shaping its relationships with other SADC countries, influencing regional policy alignment on issues like governance and trade, and potentially altering trade flows if new leadership emphasizes protectionism over regional integration.
Given the country’s history of peaceful transitions but also potential for political division linked to past economic struggles, the outcome will test Malawi’s civic institutions and could provide a lesson for the region on maintaining democratic resilience and ensuring fair processes.
The most gratifying development on countries holding elections this year have is that they all have a tradition of smooth and peaceful transitions.
The SADC region has made huge strides in the consolidation of democratic practice and institutions. The Constitutions of all SADC Member States enshrine the principles of equal opportunities and full participation of the citizens in the political process.
All SADC countries adhere to the regional Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections that are a result of broad consultations by the SADC’s Electoral Advisory Council (SEAC), with member States, stakeholders and regional electoral experts.
The principal objective of the guidelines is to promote the holding and observation of democratic elections based on the shared values and principles of democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights enshrined in the SADC Treaty signed at Windhoek, Namibia in 1992
