Prepare for super El Niño impact, SADC urged

SOUTHERN African nations have been urged to urgently scale up climate-proofing measures and strengthen food security systems ahead of a predicted moderate-to-very-strong El Niño event that could trigger severe droughts and widespread harvest failures across the region in the 2026/2027 farming season.

Speaking at the Joint Meeting of SADC Ministers responsible for Agriculture, Food Security, Fisheries and Aquaculture in Victoria Falls yesterday, Minister of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, Dr Anxious Masuka, said early climate models point to the possible development of a super El Niño, warning that the region must act now to cushion communities and economies from climate-related shocks.

“Climate change has become an everyday reality. We see this manifested through more frequent droughts, extreme heat and floods. The development of a super El Niño in the 2026/2027 season, as predicted by early climate models, should spur us to develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures,” said Dr Masuka.

He said Zimbabwe, like many countries in the region, is projected to become progressively drier in the coming decades, making investment in climate-resilient agriculture increasingly urgent.

“Therefore, the imperative to climate-proof our agriculture cannot be overemphasised,” he said.

The warning was echoed by SADC deputy executive secretary for regional integration, Ms Angele Makombo N’Tumba, who presented regional meteorological forecasts indicating a 77 percent likelihood of a moderate-to-very-strong El Niño developing between October 2026 and January 2027.

“Predictions by climate and weather experts are indicating the likelihood of El Niño towards the end of 2026 and into early 2027, with an estimated 77 percent change of a moderate to very strong EL Nino by October –December 2026 to January 2027,” she said.

Ms N’Tumba warned that historical weather patterns linked to strong El Niño events have often resulted in significantly below-average rainfall across central and southern parts of the SADC region, leading to poor agricultural yields and food insecurity.

“We must start preparing now for such a possibility,” she said.

The meeting comes as SADC countries continue to experience contrasting climate impacts, with some member states recording bumper harvests while others battle destructive floods that have washed away crops, livestock and critical agricultural infrastructure.

Ms N’Tumba said the region’s food security challenges were also being worsened by global geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted fertiliser supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

She said rising food and fuel prices, exchange-rate volatility and increased risks to food and energy security were already placing additional pressure on member states.

Agriculture remains the backbone of the SADC economy, sustaining more than 70 percent of the region’s population through food production, trade and related value chains. However, the sector continues to face mounting threats from climate change, disease outbreaks and supply chain disruptions.

Recent Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks have further strained the livestock sector, which contributes up to 40 percent of agricultural Gross Domestic Product in some SADC countries.

Ms N’Tumba said coordinated regional action was essential to strengthen resilience and protect livelihoods.

“Our people are counting on us to safeguard the resilience of our agrifood systems and protect their livelihoods,” she said.

Dr Masuka also commended SADC for achieving the highest score among African union regions in the Fifth Biennial Review of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme implementation in 2025.

He urged member states to accelerate the domestication of the new CAADP Kampala Declaration and the 2026-2035 Strategy and Action Plan.

Ms N’Tumba highlighted the strategic role of the SADC Plant Genetic Resources Centre in developing climate-resilient crops capable of withstanding harsh weather conditions.

“This centre has the mandate to coordinate the collection, conservation and utilisation of plant genetic diversity. I urge member states to deepen their engagement and fully tap into this strategic asset to protect biodiversity and build an adaptive, food-secure SADC region,” she said.

The joint ministerial meeting also focused on Foot and Mouth Disease control, fisheries and aquaculture development, and the Regional Fertiliser Programme.