adminInflation in Mozambique in December, as measured by the consumer price indices of the three largest cities (Maputo, Nampula and Beira), was 4,76 per cent, the National Statistics Institute (INE) announced on 8 January.
This was by far the largest monthly rise of 2015, and brought accumulated inflation for the year to 10,55 per cent.
Most of the December inflation is accounted for by food prices. The average price of tomatoes in the three cities rose by 28,1 per cent, and of maize by 22,9 per cent. Other significant price increases were for rice (12,9 per cent), maize flour (3,8 per cent), cooking oil (11,5 per cent), onions (11,5 per cent), and frozen fish (4,22 per cent).
Looking back over 2015, prices rose in the first three months of the year, followed by a period of deflation, as prices fell in April, May and June. There were small prices rises in July, August and September, but then inflation took off in the last quarter of the year.
Every year prices rise in the couple of months prior to the festive season. But in 2015, inflation was much higher in part because of the sharp devaluation of the national currency, the metical, particularly in November.
The metical has staged a recovery against the dollar and particularly against the South African rand, the currency in which many of the country’s food imports are denominated. Pressure on prices may thus be relaxed in January.
The figures are unwelcome news for the government, which had hoped for an inflation rate of no more than 5,6 per cent in 2015.
Meanwhile, the data from the 2014-15 Household Survey, undertaken by the National Statistics Institute (INE), and released in Maputo on 30 December, show an across the board improvement in living standards since the previous survey, held in 2008-09.
Perhaps the most startling figure is the declining percentage of disposable income spent on food. In the 2002-03 survey, households reported that 48 per cent of their expenditure went on food and non-alcoholic drinks. In 2008-09, when poverty increased, food amounted to 51,4 per cent of expenditure.
But now that figure has fallen to 35,6 per cent. Poorer households inevitably spend a higher percentage of their income on food than do richer ones. So this figure points towards a sharp decline in monetary poverty.
Transport as a percentage of expenditure rose from 6,3 per cent in 2008/9 to 9,7 percent in 2014/15, while there was a remarkable rise in the amount spent on restaurants, hotels and cafes, increasing from 0,7 to 8,4 percent of expenditure. The amount spent on communications almost doubled, from 2,1 to 4,1 per cent of total expenditure.
The figures show a continuing sharp urban/rural divide. For households in urban areas food only accounts for 20,7 per cent of their expenditure, but in the countryside the figure rises to 53 percent.
In absolute terms, average monthly household expenditure per capita rose from 324 meticais in 2002/3 to 721 meticais in 2008/9 to 1,408 meticais (US$31,3 at current exchange rates) in 2014/15.
Per capita expenditure is vastly higher in Maputo than anywhere else in the country – 5,094 meticais a month in Maputo city and 3,150 meticais in Maputo province. The most populous provinces, Nampula and Zambezia, are clearly also the poorest in monetary terms. The survey found that monthly household expenditure per capita was 809 meticais in Zambezia and 874 meticais in Nampula.
A further indicator of rising living standards is the possession of durable goods. In 2008/09 only 23,5 percent of households owned a mobile phone, but now the figure has risen to 55,8 percent. The number of households owning a television set has almost doubled, from 12,4 to 24,2 percent, while ownership of radios has fallen significantly, from 46,1 to 39,5 percent.
Car ownership has doubled, from two to 4,1 percent of households, while ownership of motor-cycles has more than doubled, from 3,6 to 8,1 percent. On the other hand, the number of households owning bicycles has fallen from 38,3 to 32,8 percent.
There has been a significant increase in personal comfort – the number of households owning beds or bunks has risen from 39,1 to 52,4 percent.
The survey found that illiteracy has fallen from 49,9 percent of the population aged 15 and above in 2008/09 to 44,9 percent now. There are sharp gender and geographical differences. 30,1 percent of men are illiterate, but 57,8 per cent of women cannot read and write. 23,1 percent of the urban population and 56,6 per cent of the rural population are illiterate. As expected, the lowest illiteracy rate (9,5 percent) is in Maputo city. The highest (60,7 percent) is in the northern province of Cabo Delgado (rising to 73,7 percent among Cabo Delgado women).
One alarming, and so far unexplained, anomaly is a rise in illiteracy in Tete province – from 50,3 percent in 2008/09 to 55,2 percent now. Tete was the only province where illiteracy rates worsened.
There was also a sharp improvement in water supply and sanitation. In 2008/09 only 40,5 percent of households took their drinking water from safe sources (such as piped water in the house or from standpipes, wells and boreholes with hand pumps, or protected springs). The 2014/15 survey showed this figure has increased to 50,9 percent.
In 2008/09, 49,3 percent of households had no latrines at all, and thus defecated in the open. That figure has now fallen to 37,5 percent.
The number of households with improved latrines has risen from 11,9 to 20,6 per cent, and with unimproved latrines from 34,9 to 35,5 per cent. Only a small minority of households have toilets linked to septic tanks – but this minority is growing, from 4,1 per cent in 2008/09 to 6,3 percent now.
There has also been a sharp increase in the use of electricity. 24,8 percent of households said they use electricity for lighting, compared with 13,9 percent in 2008/09. The use of firewood for lighting has fallen from 24,8 to 14,2 percent, and the decline in the use of kerosene lamps has been dramatic, falling from 44,5 to 13,2 percent.
The household survey is based on a sample of 11,628 households, in both urban and rural areas and covering all provinces, in 1,236 sampling areas. It took place over a year, and during this period each household was interviewed three times.
The survey also shows a widening gap between the richest fifth of the population and everybody else.
The richest quintile saw its monthly per capita expenditure rise from 1,487 meticais in 2008/09 to 5,812 meticais now. This is more than the other four quintiles put together.
For the first, and poorest, quintile the rise was from 222 to 427 meticais, for the second quintile it was from 371 to 743 meticais, and for the third expenditure rose from 485 to 1,118 meticais. For the fourth quintile, monthly per capita expenditure rose from 647 to 1,776 meticais. – Wires.
Online Reporter